名创优品（09896）：2025年第一季度收入同比增长19%，关注精细运营的效果

1Rating (Maintain):BUYTarget price (HKD):47.00AnalystFAN JunhaoSAC No. S0570524050001SFC No. BDO986fanjunhao@htsc.com+(852) 3658 6000AnalystSHI DiSAC No. S0570524090003SFC No. BVO045shidi@htsc.com+(86) 755 8249 2388AnalystLIU SiqiSAC No. S0570523090004SFC No. BSE590liusiqi@htsc.com+(86) 21 2897 2228Key dataTarget price (HKD)47.00Closing price (HKD asof 23 May)42.25Potential upside-/+ (%)11Mkt cap (HKDmn)52,8696m avg daily val (HKDmn)384.3052wk price range (HKD)20.00-55.00BVPS (RMB)8.50Share performanceSource:S&P(42)(23)(4)1534May-24Sep-24Jan-25May-25(%)MinisoHSI This report must be read with important disclosures and analyst certifications located on the end of the report.Earnings forecasts and valuationConsidering uncertainties related to tariffs and directly-operated store investments,welower our 2025/2026/2027 adjusted NP forecasts by-7.1/-9.0/-9.0%toRMB2.99/3.73/4.57bn.In view ofrisingshort-term uncertainty regardingoverseasexpansion,we value the stock at18x 2025E PE,below its peers’average of 29xonBloomberg consensus(previous:25x),for our target price of HKD47.00(previous: HKD47.11, basedon 17x 2025E PE). Maintain BUY.Risks:intensified competition in retail business;tariff-policy disruptions;disappointing store expansion overseas.FinancialsYE 30 Jun2023Revenue (RMBmn)13,839+/-%39.43Net profit (RMBmn)2,253+/-%397.15Adjusted net profit (RMBmn)2,357+/-%109.66Adjusted EPS (diluted, RMB)1.89Adjusted PE (x)20.64PB (x)5.29Adjusted ROE (%)29.05EV EBITDA (x)13.49Source:Company announcements, HuataiResearch estimates 20242025E2026E2027E16,99420,70324,73129,26122.8021.8319.4618.322,6182,9183,5704,38816.1711.4822.3422.912,7212,9933,7314,56815.4410.0124.6622.442.182.402.993.6617.8816.2513.0410.654.704.163.623.1327.8427.1529.7131.5412.1110.518.286.83 This report must be read with important disclosures and analyst certificationslocated on the end of the report.Source:S&P, Huatai Research Source:S&P, Huatai Research This report must be read with important disclosures and analyst certificationslocated on the end of the report.Full financialsIncome statementYE 30 Jun (RMBmn)RevenueCost of goods soldGross marginSelling and distribution costAdmin expensesOther income/expensesFinancial cost-netShare of P&L of associateProfit before taxTax expenseMinority interest/otherNet profitAdjustmentAdjusted Net Profit attr. to parentDiscount and amortizationEBITDAEPS (RMB, basic)Balance sheetYE 30 Jun (RMBmn)InventoriesAccount & bill receivablesCash & cash equivalentsOther current assetsTotal current assetsFixed assetsIntangible assetsOther non-current assetsTotal non-current assetsTotal assetsAccounts payableShort-term loansOther liabilitiesTotal current liabilitiesInterest-bearing bank borrowingsOther long term liabilitiesTotal non-current liabilitiesEquityReserves/other itemsShareholder equityMinority interestsTotal equityValuationYE 30 Jun (x)PEPBAdjusted PE(x)Adjusted ROEEV EBITDADividend yield (%)FCF yield (%)Source:Company announcements,HuataiResearch estimates This report must be read with important disclosures and analyst certificationslocated on the end of the report.DisclaimersAnalyst CertificationI/We, FAN Junhao, SHI Di, LIU Siqi, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views ofthe analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers; and nopart of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be, directlyor indirectly, related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report.General Disclaimers and DisclosuresThis research report has been prepared by Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited (hereinafter referred to as“HFHL”).The information herein is strictly confidential to the recipient. This report is intended for HFHL, its clients and associatedcompanies. Any other person shall not be deemed a client of the Company merely from his or her receipt of this report.This report is based on information deemed reliable and publicly available by HFHL, but HFHL and its associated company(ies)(collectively, hereinafter“Huatai”)makes no guarantee as to theaccuracy or completeness of such information.The opinions, assessments and projections contained herein only reflect the views and judgments at the issuance date. Huataimay issue research reports that contain inconsistent views, assessments and projections with those set out herein at differenttimes. The prices, values and investment returns of the securities or investment instruments referred to herein may fluctuate.Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur.Huatai makes no warrants that the information in this report be kept up to date. The information contained in this report maybemodified without notice by Huatai, and investors shall pay attention to such updates or modifications when necessary.HFHL is not a U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority(“FINRA”)member firm, and HFHL research analysts are no