甲醇周报

投资咨询资格：Z0003135 甲醇周度核心变化与策略供应端1.国产：全国开工74.51%（-0.99%），非一体化开工70.48%（-1.05%），西北开工80.9%（-1. 52%）。2.进口：预计下周进口到港增加。伊朗5月已装船71，非伊进口预期增加，6月进口预期135。外盘开工回升，非伊货源报价下跌，买气清淡需求端1.MTO：MTO开工率81.51%（+3.99%），盛虹本周已重启。诚志、渤化维持降负2.传统下游：传统下游加权开工率47.1%（-0.91%），甲醛、mtbe开工继续下降，醋酸开工提升库存1.库存累：港口累，内地累，全国微累估值1.价格:港口2280-2295（-75-80），基差09+45(-35)，内地价格走弱50-1002.煤炭：煤炭小幅上涨3.上游利润：西北利润维持高位,煤制利润670（-80）4.下游利润：港口mto利润走强70，传统下游利润转好60-120驱动短期：供应端：高利润+内地高开工+进口到港增量显著。需求端：传统下游（甲醛、二甲醚）需求疲软，维持刚需采购，MTO开工提升平衡情况：5-6月累本周观点：09短期趋势跟随现货，进口增量预期较强，虽港口当下库存仍偏低，但库存拐点已至，内地维持高开工，传统下游疲软，未来累库压力较大◼市场概述：港口持仓意愿低，价格走弱，基差走弱，进口船货密集到港（下周到港46-47万吨），库存累积压力显著，主产区让利出货，传统下游需求疲软，市场心态偏弱。 甲醇价格现货下跌，基差走弱◼内地跌幅大于港口100015002000250030003500400045001-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-3111-1612-212-18太仓甲醇2020202120222023202420252200230024002500260027002800区 域 价 格结构2025-5-162025-5-23 区域价差港口-内地区域价差缩小，物流窗口暂时关闭(500)(300)(100)1003005007001-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-3111-1612-212-18太仓-鲁南（200）202020212022202320242025-200020040060080010001-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-25太仓-内蒙（600）202020212022-20002004006008001-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-3111-1612-212-18太仓-关中（350-400）202020212022202320242025-300-1001003005007001-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-25太仓-河南（220）202020212022 基差/月差持货意愿大幅走弱，基差继续走弱，太仓现货09+45-400-300-200-10001002003004005001-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-3111-1612-212-18太仓基差202020212022202320242025-200020040060080010001-11-161-312-153-13-163-314-154-305-155-306-146-297-147-298-138-289-129-27内蒙折盘基差（升贴水600）20202021202220232024-200-150-100-500501001502002505-156-157-158-159-1510-1511-1512-151-151-5月差202020212022202320242025-150-100-500501001502009-1510-1511-1512-151-152-153-155-9月差20202021202220232024 全球价差国内美金小幅倒挂,欧美价格分化-400-20002004006001-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-3111-1612-212-18进口利润（固定价）202020212022202320242025-100-80-60-40-200201-11-172-22-182020-60-40-200204060801001-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-3111-1612-212-18中国-美湾202020212022202320242025-120-95-70-45-201-11-172-22-182020 ◼MTO盘面利润震荡品种比价-2000-1500-1000-50005001000150020001-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-3111-16PP-3MA01202020212022202320241.001.502.002.503.001-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-3111-16甲醇/丙烷202020212022202320242025盘面mto利润震荡 国产开工小幅下降◼受西北、华中地区开工负荷下降的影响，导致全国甲醇开工负荷下降55%60%65%70%75%80%1-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-3111-1612-212-18卓创国内甲醇开工20202021202220232024202555%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%1-150%55%60%65%70%75%80%1-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-3111-1612-212-18焦炉气20202021202220232024202520%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%1-1供应—国内开工率 1-172-220201-172-22020 下周部分装置回归，产量预计增加801001201401601802002201-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-3111-1612-212-18全国周度总产量202020212022202320242025供应-国内产量检修1214161820222426281-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-11日产量202020212022600000700000800000900000100000011000001200000130000014000001-11-182-42-213-93-264-124-295-166-26-197-67-238-98-269-129-2910-1611-211-1912-612-23西北202020212022202320242025200004000060000800001000001200001400001-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-25西南202020212022◼榆林凯越70、神华巴彦淖尔10装置计划重启，云南解化24装置计划检修，下周甲醇产量或将增加 7-2720237-117-272023 本周到港增加，直接进MTO较多供应-进口到港0204060801001201-12-13-14-15-16-17-18-19-110-111-112-1卓创双周预报到港20202021202220232024202501020304050607005101520010203040501-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-3111-1612-212-18华东周度到港（隆众）202020212022202320242025 外盘开工回升50556065707580851-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-31甲醇国际开工率(金联创)202020212022202320240%20%40%60%80%100%1-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-31伊朗加权开工率（自统计）20202021202220232024供应-海外开工率 估值-上游利润加权利润走弱，但煤制利润仍然高位-500-300-1001003005001-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-3111-1612-212-18西南气制利润202020212022202320242025-100-500501001502002501-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-24美国气制利润202020212022-40004008001-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-3111-1612-212-18内蒙煤制利润202020212022202320242025-500-300-1001003005007001-11-161-312-153-13-163-314-154-305-155-30河南煤制利润202020212022 需求-MTO开工开工小幅上升0%20%40%60%80%100%120%1-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-15港口烯烃开工率2020202120222023202450%60%70%80%90%100%1-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-15MTO开工率-55.8%20202021202220232024 需求-MTO利润MTO利润回升-1000-500050010001-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-3111-1612-212-18宁波富德综合现金流202020212022202320242025-800-600-400-20002004001-11-172-22-183-53-214-64-225-85-246-96-257-117-278-128-289-139-2910-1510-3111-1612-2三