TJX公司：解决关键争议

F25EF26E28.125.11.31.322.520.519.217.42.92.12.92.13.293.7421 May 2025131.03145.0011%135.85/97.535,844.61Jan1.3%146,294155,1016M12M9.434.1(1.8)9.811.224.305/255000550060006500 RatingOutperformPrice TargetTJXReported EPSTJX (USD)OLDSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.TJX: Addressing the key debatesQ1 was a tricky quarter for the usually smooth-sailing TJX, with some comp softness, tariffpressure, and concerns around supply, which took the edge off the stock today. We addressthe key debates for the stock—US demand, supply availability, and tariff costs—summarizewhy TJX remains one of our top picks into a US downturn.US Consumer Demand: Mgmt brushed aside concerns about the 2% Marmaxx comp,chalking it up to bad February weather, which affected Apparel (majority of Marmaxx) muchmore than Home, rather than a sign of US demand deterioration. Mar-Apr Apparel compsimproved, exit rate was healthy, Q2 is “off to a strong start,” and Mgmt are “very confident” ofthe 2-3% comp guide for Q2 and H2.Supply availability: Contrary to concerns of empty shelves, TJX is seeing “outstandingavailability” for Spring and Summer. While they noted a possibility of some category-specificshortages in holiday merch (e.g. Toys), their flexible store planograms allow them to lean intoother categories to avoid visible gaps, and their strong vendor relationships will get thembetter access to what’s available than other discounters might get.Tariff margin impact: TJX will face a short-term margin headwind in Q2 from the suddenonset of tariffs which hit some goods already ordered. But going forward, TJX’s ability to shiftthe supply mix across 100 countries, 21,000 vendors and multiple categories will allow themto minimize tariff costs, and their pricing strategy to remain 20-60% below full price retailallows them the ability to take pricing in line with the sector. Together, these offsets shouldfully neutralize tariff costs, and FY margin guidance remains unchanged.Investment ImplicationsWe see TJX as a winner in today’s uncertain macro environment, and one of our top picks toown this year. Outperform, PT $145See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 22 May 2025 04:01 UTC Completion Date: 21 May 2025 22:23 UTC 145.00 USDF26E5.225.19FinancialsEPS Growth (%)Gross Margin (%)Operating Margin (%)Revenues (M)Like-For-Like SalesGrowth (%) F24AF25E4.264.67--4.6856,360 F24AF25EF26E10.39.511.830.630.730.911.211.511.859,86064,134------ DETAILSOther recent work on TJX:TJX Q1: In-line print, FY guide unchangedOff-Price Retail: Q1 preview and store checksUS Softlines: Themes from Q4 earnings and Q1 guidesUS Apparel & Specialty Retail: Three names to own into a recessionUS Hardlines & Softlines Retail: How do retail stocks fare in a recession?US Apparel & Specialty Retail: A stronger 2025, with bright spots in High Income and Sportswear namesTJX: Five takeaways from Mgmt meetingsOff-price: The Retail DisruptorsQ4 retail earnings recap - TJX: Still the "hiding place" in a choppy retail environmentNote: In the charts below (and all our work on off-price) we refer to the past fiscal year that ended in January 2025 as FY24, andthe current fiscal year that ends in January 2026 as FY25. We use this naming convention for all three off-pricers for consistencyin our comparisons. TJX refers to the year ending January 2026 as FY26.KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE PRINTQ1 comp at high end of guide, margins and EPS in line. Comp of 3% was driven by an increase in customer transactions acrossall divisions. By banner, Marmaxx was 2%, HomeGoods 4%, TJX Canada 5%, and TJX International 5%. Total sales were up +5%cc to $13.1b. Biggest margin headwind was FX (-2c on EPS, -30 bps on pretax margin) while SG&A did better than guided dueto general cost savings (e.g. store initiatives).FY25 guidance maintained. Q2 “off to a strong start” but margin guide impacted by tariffs. FY guide: 2-3% comp, Pre-tax margin 11.3-11.4%, EPS $4.34-4.43. Guide assumed the current level of US tariffs remain in place. Q2 guide was typical oncomp (2-3% as usual) and Mgmt noted “The second quarter is off to a strong start.”However, margin guidance came in 50 bpsbelow Consensus and EPS 5c below Consensus due to incremental tariff related costs and lapping a freight accrual benefit lastyear.DEBATE #1: US CONSUMER DEMANDWith consumer sentiment across the US worsening (Exhibit 1), and inflation expectations growing (Exhibit 2), investorsare on the lookout for any softness in consumer demand, particularly in Discretionary Retail, which tends to underperform into arecession.Marmaxx Q1 comp softness (2%) raised some concerns. While the Q1 print overall was in-line (3% comp), Marmaxxunderperformed the chain with a 2% comp, below the leverage point and below Consensus and buyside expectations. WithMarmaxx being the biggest and highest-margin ba