佛瑞亚：尼斯会议-全新开端

F25EF26E26,69626,8301,4501,5400.961.42618.86668.74Valuation MetricsF24AF25EF26EReported P/E (x)(8.9)8.75.9EV/EBIT (x)7.16.86.4EV/EBITDA (x)3.02.92.8EV/Sales (x)0.40.40.4www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingFRVIA.FPMEDMO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSAnalyst comments.Our initial impression of new CEO Martin Fischer is positive from a small group meeting we had with himin London on 28 March. The upcoming CMD offers the potential for a reset, most notably a path to accelerating its deleveragingprogramme via disposals; net debt/adj EBITDA was 1.97x at 31 December 2024 and Forvia targets ≤1.8x for 31 December2025. We welcome Forvia’s self-help measures to cut fixed costs, which will be essential to safeguard profitability and cashflow, but there is no denying the rest of 2025 remains a challenge for the entire sector.We continue to rate Forvia Market-Perform.EUROPEAN AUTOMOBILES & COMPONENTS 2 I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYForviaOur price target is derived by applying sector average FY25 P/E multiple of 7.0x to our FY25 estimate. We think this is justifiedconsidering that its profitability is in line with its peers. This gives us our target price of €7.RISKSForviaDownside risks:1. Lower than expected light vehicle production2. increased competitive pressure leading to a deterioration in profitability3. Slower and/or lower, savings from EU Forward cost saving planUpside risks:1. Higher than expected light vehicle production2. Disposals occur faster and/or at better valuations than expectations3. Better FCF generation leads to faster debt repayments than expectationsRATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTIONBernstein brandThe Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index (EDM) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the Asia Pacificregion, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JP) for stocks listed on the Japanese exchanges,and versus the Bloomberg Asia ex-Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index (ASIAX) for stocks listed on the Asian (ex-Japan)exchanges -unless otherwise specified.The Bernstein brand has three categories of ratings:•Outperform: Stock will outpace the market index by more than 15 pp•Market-Perform: Stock will perform in line with the market index to within +/-15 pp•Underperform: Stock will trail the performance of the market index by more than 15 ppEUROPEAN AUTOMOBILES & COMPONENTS Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, Sanford(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社).3 Coverage Suspended: Coverage of a company under the Bernstein research brand has been suspended. Ratings and price targetsare suspended temporarily, are no longer current, and should therefore not be relied upon.Not Rated: A rating assigned when the stock cannot be accurately valued, or the performance of the company accuratelypredicted, at the present time. The covering analyst may continue to publish research reports on the company to update investorson events and developments.Not Covered (NC) denotes companies that are not under coverage.Autonomous brandThe Autonomous brand rates stocks as indicated below. As our benchmarks we use the Bloomberg Europe 500 Banks AndFinancial Services Index (BEBANKS) and Bloomberg Europe Dev Mkt Financials Large and Mid Cap Price Ret Index EUR (EDMFI)index for developed European banks and Payments, the Bloomberg Europe 500 Insurance Index (BEINSUR) for Europeaninsurers, the S&P 500 and S&P Financials for US banks and Pay