欧洲建筑材料地理位置至关重要！

www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingSGO.FPMGEBN.SWUROCKB.DCOSIKA.SWOKSP.IDUHOLN.SWOCRH.USOCRH.LNOHEI.GYMEDMO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedHOLN.SW valuation is Div Yield (%);Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe recently initiated coverage on the European Building Materials Sector with Sika, Holcim, CRH and Rockwool ratedOutperform and Kingspan and Geberit rated Underperform and Saint-Gobain and Heidelberg rated Market-Perform.Sika is ouroverall best idea and Holcim is our top pick in the heavy side.On the light side the geographic exposure of Sika and Saint-Gobain are diversified and much more global today than theywere pre-pandemic. Geberit and Rockwool are at the other end of the spectrum, with their geographic exposures largelyconcentrated in Europe. Kingspan has diversified to some extent, but not as aggressively as Saint-Gobain. From a geographicperspective we favour Sika and Saint-Gobain, however, several other idiosyncratic factors such as caution ahead of Saint-Gobain’s upcoming CMD in Oct and Rockwool’s dominant position in the niche stonewool insulation market, tweaks our ratings.On the heavy side Holcim and CRH are exposed to attractive geographies which grant them excellent pricing power, whileHeidelberg is still exposed to some geographies we deem less attractive, leading to our Outperform ratings on Holcim and CRHand Market-Perform rating on Heidelberg.EUROPEAN CONSTRUCTION & BUILDING MATERIALS 2 Table Of ContentsGeography is king!................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3Light side framework.......................................................................................................................................................................................................4Heavy side framework.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6Light side Volume analysis and forecast......................................................................................................................................................................... 8Which phase of development is a market in?.........................................................................................................................................................8Where do different countries stand on the Construction cycle?.................................................................................................................. 10Country analyses............................................................................................................................................................................................................ 12Where do the companies stand in geographic exposure................................................................................................................................49Heavy side market structure analysis............................................................................................................................................................................ 521. Market consolidation............................................................................................................................................................................................... 522. import substitution Risk..........................................................................................................................................................................................54Demand vs Supply.........................................................................................................................................................................................................57Combining these parameters.................................................................................................................................................................................... 58The quality of Heavy Side companies' earnings is characterized by their geographic portfolios...................................................... 60DETAILSGEOGRAPHY IS KING!Geography is king!Building materials, in general, havehigh weight or volume to valueand are therefore very difficult to shipcreating extremely localised regional markets. For example, cement can economically travel only about 100miles or 150km (seeExhibit 3) and aggregates only travel about 25miles or 35km (see Exhibit 2). Similarly, European flat glass can economically onlytravel up to about 500km on land and is difficult to ship overseas (because the large standard size of European glass cannot becontainerized