云南能源有限公司（002812 CH）的利润率承压，复苏仍不明朗

Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities LimitedView HSBCQianhai Securitiesat:https://www.research.hsbc.comTARGET PRICE(CNY)32.80SHARE PRICE(CNY)29.69(as of21 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(CNYm)Market cap (USDm)3m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(CNY)Year toHSBC QH EPSHSBC QH EPS prevChange (%)Consensus EPSPE (x)Dividend yield (%)EV/EBITDA (x)ROE (%)52-WEEK PRICE(CNY)Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimatesElaine Chen* (Reg. No.S1700524030001)Analyst, China AutosHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedelaine.chen@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 010 5795 2364Michel Liu* (Reg. No. S1700524090001)Analyst, China AutosHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedmichel.m.liu@hsbcqh.com.cn+8610 5765 2351* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsChina05/24Target price: 32.80HSBC Global Research Podcasts ◆◆◆ MAINTAIN HOLDPREVIOUS TARGET(CNY)36.20UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+10.5%28,785Free float3,996BBG46RIC12/2024a12/2025e-0.570.160.611.07nm-84.80.570.87nm183.50.00.028.117.5-2.20.611/24High: 41.69 Low: 24.47 Current: 29.69Listen to our insightsFind out more 100%002812 CH002812.SZ12/2026e12/2027e0.841.541.50na-43.6na1.461.8535.119.30.00.013.711.03.25.622.0033.0044.0005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary(CNYm)Revenue10,16412,41615,30217,136EBITDA1,4172,3843,1984,027Depreciation & amortisation-1,796-2,057-2,051-2,048Operating profit/EBIT-3803271,1471,979Net interest-314-364-404-444PBT-845638431,636HSBC QianhaiPBT-845638431,636Taxation185-9-127-245Net profit-5561578201,494HSBC Qianhainet profit-5561578201,494Cash flow summary(CNYm)Cash flow from operations1,1581,5913811,955Capex-2,859-3,849-2,601-2,399Cash flow frominvestment-2,707-3,849-2,601-2,399Dividends0000Change in net debt2,4971,8282,128352FCF equity-1,738-2,258-2,220-444Balance sheet summary(CNYm)Intangible fixed assets1,6502,5783,1763,711Tangible fixed assets28,79429,65829,61029,426Current assets13,82413,29514,56316,242Cash & others2,5741,546218365Total assets47,20048,77850,96253,204Operating liabilities7,3477,6428,2188,478Gross debt13,64714,44715,24715,747Net debt11,07312,90115,03015,382Shareholders' funds24,47124,96625,78727,281Invested capital34,34636,34338,91340,536Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue-15.622.223.212.0EBITDA-69.968.334.125.9Operating profit-111.7250.872.6PBT-127.91237.393.9HSBC QianhaiEPS-122.2422.082.1Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)0.30.40.40.4ROIC-0.80.92.74.4ROE-2.20.63.25.6ROA-0.80.82.23.4EBITDA margin13.919.220.923.5Operating profit margin-3.72.67.511.6EBITDA/net interest (x)4.56.67.99.1Net debt/equity42.348.354.753.1Net debt/EBITDA (x)7.85.44.73.8CF from operations/net debt10.512.32.512.7Per sharedata(CNY)EPS Rep (diluted)-0.570.160.841.54HSBC QianhaiEPS (diluted)-0.570.160.841.54DPS0.000.000.000.00Book value25.1925.7026.5528.09Financials & valuation:Yunnan Energy Ltd Estimate changes1Q25earnings reviewOn 29April,thecompany announced1Q25net profit of RMB26m, down 84% y-o-y. The y-o-ydecline was mainlydue topressured unit gross profitand growing operating expense to supportits overseas expansion, although partially offset byhigher sales volumes(seeExhibit1).Wecutour 2025-26 estimates;introduce 2027estimatesWe cutour2025 and 2026 net profit estimates by 85% and 44%, respectively, mainlyas:1)Welowerour2025 and 2026 GPM (excl. D&A) estimatesby3.2pptsand1.9ppts,respectively,given pricingoverhangandprofitabilitypressuredue to excess capacity in the market.3)We raise our2025 and 2026 operatingexpense ratioestimatesby 2.0pptsand 2.1ppts,respectively, to support overseas expansion amidglobal trade uncertainties.We introduce2027 estimates with thisreport.Our 2025-27 net profit estimates are well belowWind consensus (Exhibit5), as webelieve it is difficult fordomesticpricing to improveshortly.Wethinkthe weak 2024 and 1Q25 results have been largely priced in after the share pricecorrection(down7%YTD, vs CSI300 down0.5%). 3 Valuation and risksMaintain Hold;cuttarget priceto RMB32.80 (from RMB36.20)We continue to use a DCF model tovalue Yunnan, and roll over the valuation base year to 2025efrom 2024e,applyinga WACC of8.2% (from 8.6%).We lower ourperpetual growth rateassumption to 2.5% (from 4.5%) onnormalisingseparator sector growth amid domestic EV growthslowdown.Our target priceofRMB32.80 (earlierRMB36.20)implies11%upside from the currentshare price. Aswebelieve it is difficult fordomesticpricing to improveshortly,we maintain our Holdrating on the stock. Key upside risks◆Greater-than-expected improvement in product mix due to an increase in overseasorders.Overseas orders generally have more favourable pricing and margins, given thelevel and quality of their specifications.◆Faster-than-expected industry consolidation:Yunnan Energy as the leader inseparators is poised to increase its market shareif tier 2-3 operators are squeezed out.◆Better-than-expected in-house equipment development capabilit