滔搏（6110）现金流与净收入之间的显著差距

2026E2027E2028E25,291.425,907.627,182.727,582.029,031.030,900.00.260.300.331,685.32,290.43,109.2 John Chou * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8792 | john.chou@jefferies.comBoya Zhen * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8774 | bzhen@jefferies.comAnne Ling * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8783 | aling@jefferies.com The Long View: TopsportsInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWe believe the Topsports' story is about delivering consistent value (freecash flow) to investors. We expect the company's strong execution tohelp it maintain a high ROIC. With a high ROIC, Topsports could adjustits network, enabling lower expenses than its peers. This would help thecompany to better adapt to China's rapidly-changing retail environment.Leading execution also allows Topsports to be the first-mover in new retail.Compared to consensus, we are more positive on Topsports' ability tosustain cash flow growth and value for investors.Base Case,HK$6.90, +116%•We forecast sustainable cash flow growthdespitemargin erosion in coming years.Growth to be driven by two key components:•Working capital management thanks to betterefficiency and the introduction of new retailtools.•Recurring margins (excluding one-off non-cash costs and OPEX) to maintain steady.•HK$6.9 PT based on DCF.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):1)Supply Chain Management. TopSports puts emphasis on building a fairand stable supply chain system. It has standardized the supplier access process and evaluatessuppliers’ performance to improve product quality.2) Environmental Protection. It strives to minimizethe environmental impact of its operations. It adopts environmentally friendly practices to conserveenergy & lower waste/emissions.CompanyTarget(s):1)To work with socially responsible partners to promote sustainabledevelopment. 2) To increase supply chain anti-fraud monitoring to eliminate fraud and crack down onunfair competition. 3) To promote green operations, explore energy-saving technologies, and reduceGHG emissions. 4) To reduce usage of packaging materials & increase recycling.Qs to Mgmt:1) What are your quantitative ESG targets, such as energy conservation and emissionreduction? 2) How do you assess the company’s performance in supply chain management? 3) Howdo you align reducing packaging materials with consumer interests? What action have you taken toencourage customers to use biodegradable packaging materials?Please see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,HK$8.00, +150%•We forecast sustainable cash flow growthdespite margin erosions in coming years.Growth to be driven by three key components:•Revenue growth thanks to comp growth andexpanding store network.•Working capital management thanks to betterefficiency and the introduction of new retailtools.•Recurring margins (excluding one-off non-cash costs and OPEX) to maintain steady.•HK$8.0 PT based on DCF. Downside Scenario,HK$2.20, -31%•Working capital management become moredifficultdue to further deterioration inconsumer demand.•Recurring margins (excluding one-off non-cash costs and OPEX) to decline due to poordemand and cost inflation.•HK$2.2 PT based on DCF.Catalysts•Successful addition of new flagship stores.•Strong Greater China results reported by Nike.•Introduction of new efficiency programs byNike. 2 Chart 1 - Topsports: Financial Summary.Income Statement (6110 HK)RMBmnNet salesYoY% changeCOGSGross ProfitGross marginOperating ExpensesOther operating incomeOperating Profit (Reported)Operating marginNon-operating income/(expense)Pretax ProfitPretax marginNet IncomeYoY% changeNet marginBalance Sheet (6110 HK)RMBmnTotal AssetTotal LiabilitiesTotal EquityCash and cash equivalentsReceivablesInventoriesPrepaidPledged term depositsOther current assetCurrernt AssetNet PP&EOther L/T assetL/T AssetTrade payableS/T loansDividend payableOther current liabilitiesCurrent LiabilitiesL/T debtLeaseOther L/T liabilitesL/T liabiltiesCommon equityRetained earningsMinority equityOther equity & adjustmentsEquityCashflow Statement (6110 HK)RMBmnOperating cashflowInvesting cashflowFinancing cashflowFX adjustmentsChange in cashCash beginning balance (net)Cash ending balance (net)Source: Company data, Jefferies estimatesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionTopsportsTopsports is the largest sportswear retailer in China (in terms of estimated total retail-equivalent sales value, inclusive of VAT) with a 16% marketshare (in 2018) in Chinese sportswear retail market, according to Frost & Sullivan. Topsports International Holdings operates a platform ofsportswear and service in China. Its brand portfolio primarily includes Nike, Adidas, Puma, Converse, Vans, The North Face, Timberland, Reebok,Asics, Onitsuka Tiger and Skechers.Company Valuation/RisksTopsportsWe