新西兰储备银行观察：预计降息25个基点，指引谨慎

Issuer of report:HSBC Bank Australia LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comPaul BloxhamChief Economist, Australia, New Zealand & GlobalCommoditiesHSBC Bank Australia Limitedpaulbloxham@hsbc.com.au+61 2 9255 2635Jamie CullingEconomist, Australia, New Zealand & GlobalCommoditiesHSBC Bank Australia Limitedjamie.culling@hsbc.com.au+61 2 9006 5042EconomicsNew Zealand ◆◆◆ Growthupswing underway, albeit an uneven recoveryTimely indicatorsof economic activity confirm a growth upswing is underwaybutalsosuggestthat the recovery isyetbroad-based. New Zealand’s manufacturing sector showed an uptick initsrate ofexpansioninApril,the fourth consecutive month the PMI showed expansion(Chart 1).However, New Zealand’s services sector showed a contraction in April, with the PSI below 50for three consecutive months,albeit having improved from its mid-2024 trough.New Zealand’s primary sector is also supporting the growth recovery. Despite heightened globalrisks, New Zealand’s goods exports have risen sharply since Q3 2024,pushing the tradeaccount in asurplus(Chart 2). Indeed, the monthly trade balance has recorded a surplus in twoof the past four months. Elevated dairy prices and resilient dairy demand arethekey factors.The latest ANZBO survey for April showedthatbusiness confidenceisstill high, the businessactivity outlook is positive, and firms are reporting that activity is up from a year ago (Chart 3).Of note, this survey largely pre-dated the US’s reciprocal tariff announcements, which mayHowever, while business conditions areimproving, household activity is still quite subdued(Chart 3).Consumer confidence remained below its 100 watermark level in April,although it hasresumed the upwards trend it has been on. Less optimism from consumers appears to beweighing on the recovery in household consumption, with electronic cards spendingin the coreretail industries falling in two of the four months to April (Chart 4).Source:Statistics New Zealand,HSBC4. …which is likely weighing onhouseholdconsumptionSource:Bloomberg,HSBC3.04.05.06.07.08.09.02017201820192020Electronic Card TransactionsMonthly value, seasonally adjustedNZDbn impact firms’ expectations in coming months.3.Business confidence is high,butconsumers are less optimistic …Source:Statistics New Zealand,HSBC-100-80-60-40-20020406080100506070809010011012013014015020042007201020132016201920222025Surveyed Consumer and Business Confidence(monthly)Consumer Confidence (LHS)Business Confidence (RHS)IndexIndex20212022 202320242025TotalCore retail 2Economic activity isrecovering from its 2024contraction …… inpart supported by highdairy prices and strongexportsHouseholds appear cautiouswith their spending … Part of the tepid recovery in consumption may reflectaweak jobs market (discussed below).Itmayalsoreflect lags in the cash flow transmission of monetary policy.The RBNZ’s latestFinancial Stability Review in May notedthat“the effective (weighted average) mortgage rateacross all borrowers remains close to its peak” and that “… borrowers are waiting for furtherOCR cuts before re-fixing for longer terms”(Chart 5).These factorsmay also explain why the recovery in the housing marketstillappearstepid,despite the RBNZ’s cash rate cuts (Chart 6). While housing prices haverisenby 2% betweenAugust 2024 and April 2025, prices have broadly tracked sideways in recent months.Inflation back in the band,but some upside risksremainSince the RBNZ’s prior meeting on 9 April, both the Q1 CPI data and the April selected priceindices have beenpublished. Both suggest that there are still some lingering upside risks to theinflation outlook.For instance, the Q1 CPI data wasA little higher than expected(17 April 2025), with inflationpicking up paceat a quarterly rate on both the headline and trimmed mean measures.Of note,domestic inflation has proven to be a bit sticky. The April selected price indices also showedfood price inflation accelerating, to3.7% y-o-y,the fastest annual ratein 16 months.7. Quarterly trimmed mean inflation hasacceleratedSource: Statistics New Zealand,HSBC-10123456200320072011New Zealand Trimmed Mean CPIPercentage changeQuarterly%Source: RBNZ,HSBC estimates 8.Inflationexpectations rose across allhorizons in Q2Source: RBNZ,HSBC0.01.02.03.04.05.06.019931996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023%Inflation expectationsSource:Macrobond,HSBC -10123456201520192023%AnnualRBNZ Target0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0%(Annual CPI, quarterly)RBNZ target band1-year ahead2-year ahead10-year ahead5-year ahead … and some appear to haveheld off moving to lowerfixed-rate mortgagesAnnual headline and coreinflation are back in the 1-3%target band … 3 In addition, the RBNZ’s latest survey of inflation expectations highlights some upside risks.Inflation expectations across all horizons lifted in the Q2 survey (Chart 8). The rise in thetwo-year ahead measure was noticeable, up 23bp q-o-q, with the measure not having risen assharply quarter-on-quarter since mid-2022. The upti