澳大利亚储备银行观察家：预计5月降息25个基点

TheRBA Observer Multi-AssetAustralia Expect a 25bp cut in May ◆Since the RBA last met,the ‘LiberationDay’ trade policyshock has arrived,weakening the global growth outlook ◆Localinflationand unemployment datahave beenin line withRBA forecasts:we expect global risks tomotivatea 25bp cut ◆FX:modest AUD-USD upside as headwinds soften;Rates:markets paredback rate cut pricing after US-China détente Paul BloxhamChief Economist, Australia, New Zealand & GlobalCommoditiesHSBC Bank Australia Limitedpaulbloxham@hsbc.com.au+61 2 9255 2635 Global backdropplaysa bigger role Since the RBA’sboard last met, the global economy and financial markets havehadtumultuous times.The cause has beenthe ‘LiberationDay’ trade policy shock on2April, and the almostdaily shifts in theglobaltrade policy environment since then. Jamie CullingEconomist, Australia, New Zealand & GlobalCommoditiesHSBC Bank Australia Limitedjamie.culling@hsbc.com.au+61 2 9006 5042 As we see it, there are three key economic effects. First, uncertainty has risensharply, remains very high, and is set to weigh on activity. Second, ‘front-loading’ ofactivity, includingoftrade andUSconsumer spending, has artificially supportedglobalactivity but is set to unwind in the coming period, weakening growth. Third,despite ‘pauses’ on very high US tariff rates, including on 9 April,for most US tradingpartners,and,13 May,for China,currentUS import tariff rates are still much higherthan they were before2April.We see this weighingonUS and global growth,anupsideriskfor US inflation,andlikely to weigh on global inflation,includingthroughcommodity prices(seeBefore and after, 6 May 2025). Lenny JinGlobal FX StrategistThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedlenny.jin@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6549 Justin HengAPAC Rates StrategistThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjustin.heng@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 9778 We expectamodestnegativegrowth impactfrom these events on Australia.Australiais not the biggest“loser”from these developments, given a comparativelysmall direct trading relationship with the US andthe ease ofsubstitutability ofcommodity exports across markets.We alsoseethe shockas likelysomewhatdisinflationary for Australia, given weaker expected global growth and trade diversionof manufactured goods from China intonon-USmarkets, including Australia. The local underlying inflation andunemployment rateindicators have been broadly inline with the RBA’s forecasts from February,buttimely indicators suggestthat theupswing ingrowth islikelyto beweaker thanthe RBA had beenprojecting. We expect a 25bp cut on 20 May. That said, we expectthecautious easing approachto continue, withthe RBA’s commentary still more focused on sticky local inflationthan growth concerns. We see a total of 100bp of cuts by Q12026. On FX, we see modest AUD-USD upside as headwinds soften, partly reflecting thereduction in US tariffs.On rates,thethaw in US-China relations saw repricing of ratecut expectationsacross economies, including Australia. HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:HSBC Bank Australia Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Source:Macrobond,HSBC Global developments in focus The global backdrop has delivered big changesand considerableuncertaintysince the RBA’sboard last met at the beginning of April. The key factor has beensignificant shifts inUS tariffsand trade policyfollowing President Trump’s ‘LiberationDay’ announcements on2April. Global developments havebeen in focus since theRBA’s last board meeting … Thekeydevelopmentssince the RBA’s last meeting have included the following (albeit smallershifts have occurred almost daily). The‘LiberationDay’ reciprocal tariffs announcements on2April, with a baseline10%tariff on all US imports in effect from 5 April and higheradditionalcountry-specific tariffsplanned to be ineffecton 9 April; a substantial reversal on 9 April, withthe higher country-specific tariff ratespaused for 90 daysfor most countries, but tariffs betweenthe US and China lifted sharply to very high rates of c145% and c130%, respectively;on 12May,thevery highUS and China’s tariffswere lowered to 30% and 10%, respectively,for 90 days,while trade negotiations proceed(seeChina-US trade talks, 12 May 2025). A key result has been a sharp rise in trade policy uncertainty, with the USTradePolicyUncertaintyIndex at very high levels (Chart 1). As it stands,the current US tariff settingsalsostill imply the ‘average’ US tariff ratethatis atthehighestlevelin nearly 100 years (Chart 2). … with heighteneduncertainty and higher UStariffs The impact of tariffs and related uncertaintyhasstarted to become clearer in the Aprileconomicfigures, although it is still early days(seeBefore and after, 6 May 2025). I