中华人民共和国出境旅游放缓对亚太地区的影响

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANKTheADB Economics Working Paper Seriespresents research in progress to elicit commentsand encourage debate on development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. The views expressedare those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the views and policies of ADB orits Board of Governors or the governmentsthey represent.Impact of Slowdown of Outbound Tourism fromthe People’s Republic of China on Asia and the PacificBadri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan,Ma. Veronica Domingo, and Sanchita Basu DasNo. 782 | May 2025Badri Narayanan Gopalakrishnan (badri@infisum.com)is the founder of Infinite Sum Modelling LLC.Ma. Veronica Domingo (mvdomingo.consultant@adb.org)is a consultant at the Asian Development Bank (ADB).Sanchita Basu Das (sbasudas@adb.org) is an economistat the Economic Research and Development ImpactDepartment, ADB. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)© 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444Some rights reserved. Published in 2025.ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS250187-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS250187-2The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess.This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material.Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to useCorrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda.In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars.ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China. www.adb.orgthe ADB logo.Notes: ABSTRACTThe study analyzes the impact of changes in outbound tourism from the People’s Republic ofChina (PRC) on the subregions of Asia and the Pacific—Southeast Asia, East Asia, South Asia,Central and West Asia, and the Pacific. It conducts three simulations to understand the broadereconomic and sectoral impacts of: 1) the expansion of outbound tourism from the PRC from 2017to 2018; 2) its slump in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic; and 3) its cautious recovery from2021 to 2022. The study broadly finds that gross domestic product (GDP) and export gains forAsia and the Pacific subregions are notable when the number of outbound tourists is high, i.e.,prior to the pandemic and later in 2021–2022, and again when the PRC slowly opened its borders.Conversely, GDP and export losses are notable when outbound tourism fell in 2020 due topandemic. Sectoral impacts are heterogenous, and the impact on exports is not necessarilyaligned with that on GDP, because there are trade diversions and sectoral resource diversionsthat mute the impact going from exports to GDP. Given these dependencies on the PRC’soutbound tourism, the study suggests that economies in Asia and the Pacific consider diversifyingtheir source markets through travel facilitation and better connectivity.Keywords:outbound tourism,exports, GDP, sectors, GTAP, Asia and the Pacific,We thank Karthikeyan Chandramohan a researcher in Infinite sum Modelling for his inputs during the preparation ofthe paper. We thank Jong Woo Kang, Director ERCI, for his feedback on an earlier version of the paper, and AleliRosario, senior economics officer in ERDI, for editorial help and inputs. An earlier draft of the paper was presented inERDI webinar, and we thank all who attended and shared their thoughts to help us improve the paper. People’s Republic of ChinaJEL codes:C68, F14, Z3_______________________ 1.0IntroductionThe coron