美国餐饮业最新动态

Winter2024 Restaurant Market From 30,000 Feet2Restaurants with clearly defined value propositions remain well positioned for growth entering 2025.Bifurcation of Performance PersistsWage growth continues to trail inflation, keeping consumers price-sensitive and limiting theirdiscretionary spending.Concepts striking the right balance between value and quality are seeing traffic gains and winning.Operators should realize profitability lift as inflation normalizes heading into 2025.Consumers Still Value Food-Away-From-Home… With Some ConditionsFood-away-from-home has been more impacted by inflationary conditions than food-at-home (by asmuch as 270 bps), which further applies pressure to restaurant traffic.Consumers continue to seek value, gravitating toward concepts that balance price, quality, andconvenience within their unique value propositions.Categories Getting the Most Attention: Chicken, Coffee, Smoothie, EthnicIn terms of food categories, chicken, coffee, smoothies, and ethnic options (e.g., Greek, Hawaiian, Asian)are garnering significant attention from consumers and investors. Ethnic flavors are particularly popularas consumers diversify their palates, with Millennials and Gen Z especially favoring bold flavors.Every Marginal Dollar MattersDriving Comps:Strategic price updates where customers will accept them to drive an increase in ticket size.Loyalty Programs:Leverage discounts, personalization, and bundling to retain customers.Labor Efficiency:Optimize staffing and accelerate kitchen automation to reduce operating expenses.Real Estate Strategy:Those with flexibility of format winning in today’s real estate market.Rates Are Easing, Outlooks Are ImprovingThe Federal Reserve’s recent 75 bps rate cuts, coupled with slowing inflation and a cooling job market,are expected to further boost consumer confidence, creating a more favorable environment forrestaurant spending and growth as we enter 2025.Sources: Restaurant Business, Bureau of Labor, Wall Street Research.The M&A Pipeline Is GrowingDeal activity and restaurant sector momentum is picking up as high-growth concepts seek capital andprivate equity investors eye exits. Moderate interest rate cuts and improving consumer sentimentprovide favorable tailwinds. 010205040306 Quick-Service RestaurantsFast CasualSSS20.9%~5.0%0.3%(3)18.1%~6.0%~6.0%8.5%AUV(1)~$2.1M~$2.1M~$2.5M~$2.8M~$2.9M~$3.2M~$2.1MTraffic(2)Majority of SSSN.A.N.A.12.9%N.A.3.3%3.8%2023–2024Price Increase(2)N.A.N.A.N.A.5.2%N.A.2.0%4.7%Value ThesisFast, Shareable Meals,Differentiated ConceptFast, Innovative Menu,Dedicated CustomersFast, Economical,Value-FocusedPremium Food,Healthy Options,Affordable PriceHealth-Forward,Sustainable IngredientsHigh-Quality,Fresh Ingredients,Affordable PriceBig Portions, QualityService, FamilyAtmosphereCommentary•Hyper-personalizeddigital salesexperiences enablegreater convenience.•Shareable menu,unique discounts,and signature itemsbuild a defensiblemoat.•Taco Bell reignssupreme on value,beating outcompetitors andother QSR brands,through new,innovative menuitems, consistent LTOiteration, andtechnologyinvestments thatimprove customerexperience andefficiency.•McDonald’s hasmanaged to capturemarket share despitegenerally flatcomparable-storesales, highlighting itsresilience amid an E.coli outbreak and achallenging macroenvironment.•Consistentlymaintained pricingpower, motivatingtrade-up fromQSR/trade-downfrom casual dining.•Healthy, high-qualityfood options(including theaddition of steak),boost its appeal.•Targets busy, health-conscious consumersby providing quick,customizable mealoptions withoutcompromisingquality.•Invests in technologyto personalize thecustomer experienceand optimizeoperations, includinga digital orderingsystem via mobileapps and loyaltyprograms.•Strong menuinnovation and LTOswith the return ofsmoked brisket andsuccessful testing ofhoney chicken.•Improved throughputand customerexperience byimplementing theexpo position in 10%more restaurants androlling outtechnology (e.g.,dual-sided plancha,produce slicer).•Focused onenhancing foodquality, consistency,and service.•Implementedstrategic menupricing andincrementalimprovementsin labor productivity.Restaurant Operators With Clear Value Propositions Continue to Outperform...3Crowning the Winners of Q3 Earnings SeasonSources: QSR, Restaurant Business, SEC filings, Wall Street Research.(1) Reflects YoY Q3 AUV. (2) Reflects YoY change attributable to fast casual SSS and casual dining systemwide sales. (3) Onlyreflects SSS growth for U.S.-based McDonald’s. But Operating Headwinds Persist Evidenced by the Most Recent Wave of Bankruptcies andRestructurings4Recent bankruptcies reflect lingering pandemic effects and operators’ struggles to adapt to the changing market landscape.Situation Overview•Bucadi Beppo is an Italianrestaurant chain with 64locations across the U.S.•Buca di Beppo and nineaffiliated debtors filed forChapter 11 bankruptcy onAugust 4, 2024.•BurgerFi is a fast casualrestaurant chain with 91l