首次覆盖报告：老牌券商何所去，只待旧貌换新颜

20242,192-5.6%109-8.6%0.04211.881.96 增持600095.SH--首次8.09孙寅S0800524120007sunyin@research.xbmail.com.cn陈静S0800524120006chenjing@research.xbmail.com.cn2025-012025-05证券Ⅲ沪深300证券研究报告2025年05月15日 2025E2026E3,0453,41238.9%12.1%362231.3%30.0%0.1363.9549.182.08 2027E3,90014.3%47061831.4%0.160.2237.422.001.92 分析师1851197015618811120850相关研究 2|请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明内容目录投资要点..................................................................................................................................4关键假设.............................................................................................................................4区别于市场的观点..............................................................................................................4股价上涨催化剂..................................................................................................................4估值与目标价......................................................................................................................4湘财股份核心指标概览.............................................................................................................5一、湘财股份为民营资本控股，业务机制灵活......................................................................61.1、湘财股份股权结构相对分散.....................................................................................61.2、湘财股份子公司布局以证券为主..............................................................................7二、湘财证券为老牌券商，互联网基因浓厚............................................................................82.1、湘财证券历史沿革......................................................................................................82.2、经纪和信用收入为湘财证券重要收入来源.................................................................92.3、湘财证券以财富管理和金融科技为竞争力...............................................................102.3.1、与互联网平台战略合作，流量转化扩大客户基本盘........................................112.3.2、与益盟合作，通过投资顾问提升客户ARPU值...............................................122.3.3、并购驱动转型，为证券业务多重赋能..............................................................14三、湘财股份拟收购整合大智慧，有望实现协同...................................................................153.1、他山之石：东方财富“流量+证券”的成功经验......................................................153.2、湘财股份和大智慧可能的合作模式展望...................................................................18四、湘财股份盈利预测和估值展望........................................................................................194.1、湘财股份盈利预测....................................................................................................194.2、湘财股份PE和PB估值分析...................................................................................20五、风险提示.........................................................................................................................21图表目录图1：湘财股份核心指标概览图...............................................................................................5图2：湘财股份主要参控股子公司...........................................................................................8图3：湘财股份发展历程..........................................................................................................9图4：湘财证券2019-2024年资产持续扩张............................................................................9图5：湘财证券营收、净利润在短暂承压下稳健增长..............................................................9图6：经纪信用业务是湘财证券的重要收入来源...................................................................10图7：经纪业务净收入中代理买卖证券占比较高...................................................................10图8：湘财证券2021-2023年股基市占率较为稳定...............................................................10 3|请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明图9：湘财证券融出资金市占率较为稳定..............................................................................10图10：陆家嘴营业部股基交易额及占公司交易额比重..........................................................12图11：国权北路营业部股基交易额及占公司交易额比重.......................................................12图12：湘财智盈APP页面展示............................................................................................13图13：湘财证券投资咨询业务收入逐渐扩张.........................................................................14图14：近两年大智慧月活用户数量.......................................................................................15图15：大智慧月活用户数量与涨乐财富通相近.....................................................................15图16：证券业务已经成为东方财富集团主要盈利来源..........................................................16图17：东方财富收入逐渐以证券业务为主............................................................................16图18：东方财富经纪成交市占率逐年提升............................................................................17图19：东方财富两融市占率增长迅速...................................................................................17图20：东方财富商业模式概览..............................................................................................17图21：东方财富证券、湘财证券、麦高证券净资产对比......................................................18图22：东方财富证券、湘财证券、麦高证券净利润对比......................................................18表1：湘财股份前十大股东明细...............................................................................................7表2：湘财证券与互联网企业推进战略合作..