国内隐形矫治器领军企业加速全球扩张

Angelalign (6699 HK)Domestic clearalignerleaderacceleratingglobalexpansion Target PriceHK$69.55Up/Downside29.0%Current PriceHK$53.90 Founded in 2003, Angelalign is a leading providerof clear alignertreatmentsolutionsin China. For four consecutive years since 2021, Angelalign has maintained its No.1market share in China's clear alignermarket. Angelalign achieveda robust revenueCAGR of 23.8%(inUSDterms based onhistorical exchange rates)from2019 to2024. We expect Angelalign to benefit from an improvingdomesticcompetitivelandscape and rapid overseas expansion, sustaining strongrevenuegrowthwithaCAGRof 18.0%for 2024-27E. Based on anSOTPvaluation, wederiveaTP ofHK$69.55per share.Initiate coverage on the company with BUY. Cathy WANG(852) 3916 1729cathywang@cmbi.com.hk Jill WU, CFA(852) 3900 0842jillwu@cmbi.com.hk Steady growth inChina with strengthened leadership position.China has alarge malocclusion patient base. Rising incomes and aesthetic awareness areexpected to boost clear aligner penetration.Angelalignhassolidified its No.1position since 2021 with a 42% domestic market share in 2023, according to CIC.Macroheadwinds slowed domesticmarket growth,resulting insmaller brandexits and likely further share concentration among leaders. With comprehensiveportfolios, Angelalignhasexpandedto lower-tier cities and children/adolescentsmarket, whichhasdrivenits solid growthdespite macropressures. In 2024,itsdomestic casevolumeincreased by3.2% YoY. Short-term margin pressure fromproductandchannelmixespersists,yetprocessoptimizationandcostmanagementhavekeptdomestic profitabilitystable. We think the clear alignerindustry exhibits strong brand stickiness. Outstanding product quality and clinicalservices enable Angelalign to build deepdoctor partnerships, positioning it forfurther market share expansion. Rapidglobalization with improving profitability.Theglobal clear alignermarketreachedUS$6.5bn in 2024 and is expected to reach US$32bnby 2030E(30.7% CAGR,according toGrand View Research). Angelalign has rapidlyexpanded overseas since 2022.In 2024,Angelalign’s overseas casesachieved140,700, generating revenue of US$81mn,accounting for30%of total revenue.Through a “localizedoperations+ M&A” model, Angelalignhasestablishedaglobal supply chain and local teams, rapidly expanding in key markets such asEuropeandBrazil.WethinkAngelalignhaslargelycompletedthehigh-investment customer acquisition phase with profitability, ASP, and gross margintrending upward.Weexpect overseas businesstocontinue to beAngelalign'slong-term growth driver. Source: FactSet Technologyinnovation anddigitalizationcreatehighcompetitivebarriers.Angelalign maintains high R&D investment,andowns acomprehensive productportfolioandan advanced digital orthodontic platform.ItsiOrtho platform anddigital tools improve doctorefficiency andsimplify complex case management,whichenhance doctor loyalty. Technology barriers, product innovation, anddigital capabilities not only reinforce Angelalign’s leadership in China but alsoprovide core competitiveness for global expansion. InitiateatBUYwith TP of HK$69.55.Weexpect Angelalign tomaintainstronggrowth in overseas markets,andforecast a 42.8% overseas revenue CAGR(2024-27E).We projecta 3.3% domestic revenue CAGR (2024-27E) withstableoperating margins. Based onour SOTP valuation, we assign 18x 2025E P/E tothe mature domestic business and 6x 2025E P/S to the rapidly expandingoverseas business,deriving a target price of HK$69.55.Earnings Summary Earningsforecasts and valuation Source:Angelalign,CMBIGM estimatesNote:1)Revenue generated from clear aligner treatment solutions mainly represents the revenue generated from provision of clearaligner treatment solutions services to clients in the China market.Revenue generated from sales of clear aligners mainly representsthe revenue generated from sales of clear aligners to clients in the non-China global markets.2)For 2025E-2027E, revenue frommainland China is estimated based onrevenuefromclear aligner treatment solutions, sales of otherproducts, and other services.Overseas revenue is estimated based onrevenuefromsales of clear aligners. The development stages of Angelalign’s domestic and overseas businesses differs.Thedomestic business is mature, with a solid industry position and stable profitability. Theoverseas businessis stillin the incubation phase, characterized by significant early-stageinvestments in capacity building and market promotion,witha smaller revenue base butrobust growth.Therefore,we apply P/E valuation to its domestic business and P/S to itsoverseas operations. Domestic business We expect the profitability ofAngelalign’sdomestic business to remain stable, withoperatingprofitincreasingtoUS$28mn/US$28mn/US$29mnin2025E/26E/27E.Assuming a 15% tax rate, after-tax operating profit is estimated at US$24mn/ US$24mn/US$25mn in 2025E/26E/27E.We assign an18x 2025E P/E,in line withAlign Technology,corresponding to a market capitalization ofUS$429mn. Overseasbusi