国内隐形矫治器龙头企业加速全球扩张

Target PriceHK$69.55Up/Downside29.0%Current PriceHK$53.90China HealthcareCathy WANG(852) 3916 1729cathywang@cmbi.com.hkJill WU, CFA(852) 3900 0842jillwu@cmbi.com.hkStock DataMkt Cap (HK$ mn)Avg 3 mths t/o(HK$ mn)52w High/Low (HK$)76.30/46.65Total Issued Shares (mn)Source: FactSetShareholding StructureCareCapital Orthotech LimitedShore Lead LimitedSource: HKExShare PerformanceAbsolute10.8%-8.0%-11.8%Source: FactSet12-mth Price PerformanceSource: FactSet 9,164.458.2170.051.3%12.6%Relative1-mth1.4%3-mth-11.3%6-mth-26.9% PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEEarningsforecasts and valuationFigure1: Revenue forecasts (2023-2027E)-by segment/region2023BysegmentClear aligner treatmentsolutionsRevenue(US$mn)182YoY6.0%Sales of clear alignersRevenue(US$mn)15YoY1651.4%Sales of other productsRevenue(US$mn)10YoY-14.9%Other servicesRevenue(US$mn)3YoY14.1%ByregionMainland ChinaCase volume212,000YoY15.3%Revenue(US$mn)189YoY5.5%OverseasCase volume33,000YoYRevenue(US$mn)21YoY1651.4%Total revenue (US$mn)210YoY16.2%Source:Angelalign,CMBIGM estimatesNote:1)Revenue generated from clear aligner treatment solutions mainly represents the revenue generated from provision of clearaligner treatment solutions services to clients in the China market.Revenue generated from sales of clear aligners mainly representsthe revenue generated from sales of clear aligners to clients in the non-China global markets.2)For 2025E-2027E, revenue frommainland China is estimated based onrevenuefromclear aligner treatment solutions, sales of otherproducts, and other services.Overseas revenue is estimated based onrevenuefromsales of clear aligners.Figure 2: CMBIGM estimates vs consensusCMBI(US$mn)FY25EFY26EFY27ERevenue320377442Gross profit190228270Operating profit61834Net profit122237EPS(US$)0.070.130.22Gross margin59.24%60.34%61.08%Operating profitmargin1.80%4.68%7.74%Net margin3.78%5.81%8.35%Source: Bloomberg, CMBIGM estimates ConsensusDiff. (%)FY25EFY26EFY27EFY25EFY26E3013633916.3%4.0%1832212433.5%3.0%71849-22.8%-0.4%162841-25.8%-21.7%0.100.17--25.7%-23.2%60.81%60.93%62.28%-1.56ppt-0.59ppt2.48%4.89%12.61%-0.68ppt-0.21ppt5.42%7.72%10.44%-1.63ppt-1.91ppt PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEThe development stages of Angelalign’s domestic and overseas businesses differs.Thedomestic business is mature, with a solid industry position and stable profitability. Theoverseas businessis stillin the incubation phase, characterized by significant early-stageinvestments in capacity building and market promotion,witha smaller revenue base butrobust growth.Therefore,we apply P/E valuation to its domestic business and P/S to itsoverseas operations.Domestic businessWe expect the profitability ofAngelalign’s domestic business to remain stable, withoperatingprofit increasing to US$28mn/US$28mn/US$29mn in 2025E/26E/27E.Assuming a 15% tax rate, after-tax operating profit is estimated at US$24mn/ US$24mn/US$25mn in 2025E/26E/27E.We assign an18x 2025E P/E,in line withAlign Technology,corresponding to a market capitalization ofUS$429mn.Figure3:Operating profit forecast of domestic business(US$mn)202320242025E2026E2027EMainland ChinaOperating profit2727282829Operating profit margin14.3%14.3%14.2%14.1%14.0%Tax rate20.3%14.2%15.0%15.0%15.0%Tax54444Post-tax operating profit2223242425Source:Company data,CMBIGM estimatesNote:Operating profit=Gross profit–(selling expenses +R&D expenses + administrativeexpenses)OverseasbusinessWe expectAngelalign’s overseas business to maintain strong growth, with revenuegrowing to US$123mn/ US$177mn/ US$235mn in 2025E/26E/27E. We assign a6x 2025EP/S multiple,in line withthe peer average,correspondingto a market capitalization ofUS$736mn.Figure4:Overseas revenueforecast(US$mn)202320242025E2026E2027EOverseasRevenue2181123177235Operating profit-31-31-32-19-3Operating profit margin-149.1%-38.7%-26.4%-11.0%-1.3%Source:Company data, CMBIGM estimatesNote:Operating profit=Gross profit–(selling expenses +R&D expenses + administrativeexpenses) PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEInvestment Risks1)Underperformance in overseas market expansion；2)Significant investment in overseas markets lead to pressure on profitability；3)Intensified competition in the domestic market；4)The macroeconomic environment continues to impact domestic market demand. PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGEDisclosures& DisclaimersAnalyst CertificationThe research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides