初步观点：我们从电话会议中学到了什么

UK | InsuranceAviva Plc First View: What We Learnt From the Call Conclusion In our view, Aviva provided best-in-class colour on today's call, perhapsexplaining why the call lasted more than an hour despite only covering ashort trading update. This detail was particularly evident when it came tothe latest trends in the Generali Insurance business—almost all of whichprovide valuable read across to peers (see below for details). As we noted this morning, when we look through recent weather losses, theunderlying performance of Aviva's non-life business is surprisingly strong,with margins improving despite industry-wide pricing pressure. In motor,this has come from the continued earn-through of price rises in the lasthard cycle, with more recent pricing pressure being viewed by managementmore as a normalisation. In home, the outperformance is driven by holdingprices flat, even while peers are cutting. Detail General Insurance• Tariff exposure is indirect via Canadian auto, but that they have been delayed for 2 years.In Canadian auto only 1/3 of claims is damage, of which 50% is spare parts that could beimpacted. The open reserves have been modestly strengthened for inflation.•Canadian claims inflation is +5% to +6%.•Canadian retention is 86%, depressed by the exit from an unprofitable scheme.•UK claims inflation is mid-single-digits across the board. Motor prices fell in line with themarket (i.e. -4%), but the pace has decelerated YTD. Home prices have been held flat,while peers have cut theirs.•Lower speed limits in Wales and parts of England are reducing claims frequency.•UK commercial retention is 90%.•The Irish storm cost the industry €300m. Aviva's market share is 10%, implying €30m ofclaims, relative a reinsurance attachment point of €30m. Life & Wealth• Aviva's win rate for new workplace pension schemes is 76% (135 in 1Q 2025) and theretention rate is 95%.•The platform fee is larger than any additional fund management fees. Group• Central liquidity rose £100m to £1.8bn (but £1.3bn is ring-fenced for Direct Line).•The finance facility set for the deal has been cancelled. Related Research Philip Kett * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7548 4126 | pkett@jefferies.com Company Description Aviva Plc Aviva is the UK's leading composite insurer, with a top three market share in UK non-life markets and one of the largest back books of UK lifeinsurance. It is in the process of building out asset management capabilities in the UK through growth in the AIMS fund. International venturesstill include Canadian Non-Life (with top 3 market share), as well a sequence of European Life & Non-Life operations (France, Ireland, Italy andPoland) and niche positions in Asia, of which only the Canadian business is considered core. Company Valuation/Risks Aviva Plc Our price target is derived from a discounted cash flow, sum-of-the-parts model, which factors in surplus capital generation under Solvency II. Wevalue excess surplus generated over and above a Solvency II ratio of 190% in 2024F, 185% in 2025-26F and above 180% from 2027F onwards. Downside risks include credit defaults, equity market volatility and declining real estate values. In addition, the acquisition of Direct Line createsboth upside opportunities from expense and capital synergies, offset by the downside risks of execution and integration issues. Analyst Certification: I, Philip Kett, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report. Registration of non-US analysts:Philip Kett is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualifiedas a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be subjectto the FINRA Rule 2241 and restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate,but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports arepublished at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement. Investment Recommendation Record (Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR) Recommendation PublishedMay 15, 2025 , 04:58 ET.Recommendation DistributedMay 15, 2025 , 04:58 ET. Company Specific Disclosures Explanation of Jefferies RatingsBuy - Describes securities that