全球利率观点：新兴市场与发达市场

THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO MAINLAND CHINA GlobalRates Ideas EM & DM Global ◆Rate cut expectations have been priced out to reflect progresson trade talks so we like receiving USD 2Y1Y SOFR Daniela RussellHead of UK Rates StrategyHSBC Bank plcdaniela.russell@hsbcib.com+44 20 7991 1352 ◆BTPslook relatively rich after the recent move and we sellthem in a new ASW tradeidea Steven Major, CFAGlobal Head of Fixed Income ResearchHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFCsteven.j.major@hsbc.com+971 4 5093323 ◆Receive2Y2Y ZAR IRS as policy headroom exists formarkets to price a lower policy rate in the medium term EM and DM tradeideasand strategy Receive USD 2Y1Y SOFR Page3 Receivingfront-end ratesoutright offers attractive risk-reward following the recentrepricing of the Fedoutlook.A lower probability of a‘stagflation-lite’ scenario furthersupportsthis view. Sell 10Y BTPs on ASW Page5 BTPs are rich on various metrics but look particularly vulnerable to retracement onASW, where, unlike in BTP-Bunds, the cheapening trend is your friend. Receive 2Y2Y ZAR IRS Page7 Werecentlyopened this trade on the increased likelihood of inflation target reform.Markets can move to price a lower policy rate in the medium term. Pay 2Y AUD-SGD IRS/OIS spread Page9 Recentstronger-than-expectedeconomic data, along with the US-Chinatradetruce,argue for higheryields for Australia.In contrast, ample liquidity conditions andpersistent currency strengthshould allow for lower rates in Singapore. UK: Testing times ahead of the 30Y gilt syndicationPageRecent positive global developments provide a more supportive backdrop forinvestors to buy outright or extend on the curve at the supply. However, ASWvaluations look more stretched. Czech 10-1Y bond-swap flattener Page13 We thinkauction demand has reached a floor in Czech Republic and 10Y valuations arenow attractive, considering ASW and swap slope. Meanwhile, at the fine-tuning stage ofitscycle, the CNB may wish to operate with a hawkish buffer in the nearterm. Receive 2Y NDS vs pay 2Y NDOIS Page15 We favourpositioning forrenewed tightening ofNDS-NDOIS basisas recent moveslook overdone. The week ahead: Events and views Listen to our insights Week ahead inDM Page17 Week ahead inEM Page21 Find out more For trades closed in this publication pleaseseeTable9onPage29 Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Contents EM & DM trades and views3 Rec USD 2Y1Y SOFR3Sell 10Y BTPs on ASW5Receive 2Y2Y ZAR IRS7Pay 2Y AUD-SGD IRS/OIS spread9UK: Testing times ahead of the30Y gilt syndication11Czech 10-1Y bond-swap flattener13Receive 2Y NDS vs pay 2Y NDOIS15 Week ahead in DM17 US17Canada18Eurozone–Core18Eurozone–Non-core19UK19Australia20 Week ahead in EM21 Mainland China21India21Thailand21Malaysia22Korea22Singapore23Hong Kong23Philippines23Hungary23Israel24South Africa24 Emerging Market Centralbank monitor27 Recent publications28 Trade tracker29 Disclaimer36 EM & DMtrades and views Rec USD 2Y1Y SOFR Dhiraj NarulaRates AnalystHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.dhiraj.narula@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 0210 ◆We see renewed value at thefront-end following the repricing of Fed easing expectations◆The probability of a ‘stagflation-lite’ scenario has fallen, in our view, amid trade dealdevelopments and progress on inflation…◆…paving the way for the resumption of rate cuts and lower yields Shubham SharmaGlobal Rates StrategistHSBC Securities and CapitalMarkets (India) Private Limitedshubham.s.sharma@hsbc.co.in+91 80 67372651 Steven Major, CFAGlobal Head of Fixed IncomeResearchHSBC Bank Middle East Ltd, DIFCsteven.j.major@hsbc.com+971 4 5093323 Value returns at the front-end We believe an attractive opportunity to receive short-dated SOFR rates has emerged after thesharp repricing seen over the past two weeks.In our view, this is best expressed at the 2Y1Ysegment of the curve. Positioning in forwards rather than spot overcomes the punitive carry costat the front-end–and, with a two-year forward start, also benefits from positive rolldown. Our chart highlights that 2Y1Y SOFR yields are back at their March levels, having risen by fourstandarddeviations,i.e. moving from the lower band to the upper band so far in May 2025(Figure 1). Looking ahead, we think the balance of risk-reward considerations skews towardslower yields from here. Wethink hawkish scenarioprobabilities have declined First, recent developments have arguably lowered the probability of a stagflation-like scenario.We noted inFixed Income Asset Allocation(8 May 2025) that in an environment where bothinflation and unemployment are rising–but inflation is further from target–an independent Fedwould be expected to be hawkish.April CPI data was softer than expected and coupled withreduced tariffs and pr