中国房地产：第二天考察总结更多政策稳固复苏

China Real Estate EquitiesREMD Day 2 tour wrap:Morepolicies toanchor recovery China ◆Centaline foresees moresupportivepropertypoliciestoanchor the market recovery Michelle Kwok*Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6918 ◆Project visits:Busy sales office, keeping up with high spiritsand energy level, affirming our view of a market bottom Oliver Yu*Analyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedoliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 2050 ◆Key picks are CRL, C&D, China Jinmao and Beike, allBuy-rated Stephen Wang*, CFAAnalyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedstephen.wang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2284 1675 Centaline roundtable–more policies to reinforce market stabilization.We had aroundtable discussion with Mr. LIU Yuan, Vice President of Property ResearchatCentaline,to discuss the latest housing market dynamics.Contrary tothemarketview,hebelieves more policies will be announced to reinforce this recovery cycle. Inspite of apullbackin April,Mr Liu’s tone is more optimistic andheis confident thattier-1 and tier-2 cities will stabilize premised on more supportive policies. Specifically,lower mortgage rateswill drive the release of pent-up demand, while luxury projectscontinue to go from strength to strength.Hecited Xiamen as a successful case studyfor policy implementation–combination of property vouchersand home purchasesubsidies has effectively lowered the cost of purchasing a property. Other policyproposals on the table include renewed effortson urban renewal projects, potentialimplementation of shantytown 2.0 and further inventory acquisition. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Site visits–clear sign of market bottoming.Yesterday, we got a sense of the highenergy level from our luxury project visits(Tour wrap and a contrarian view on pre-saleoverhaul, 15 May).In Day 2 of our tour, we visited more mass market projects to get abroaderunderstandingof the market recovery. Our conclusion is that the market hasshown a clear sign of bottoming. Sales managers were engaging andoccupied hostingtours inparallel.Developers’ pricing strategy is unaggressive, facilitating solid projectsell-through rates.Prospective home buyersarefinancially capableoflooking toupgrade their living standards. Despite low mortgage rates(3.15% for first home) anddownpayment requirement (15% for first home), home buyers arereluctant to leverageupamid macro uncertainties.Theaverage downpayment ratio is 40% on average, perour discussion with sales managers. Stock picks:Amongthedevelopers, we preferCRL(1109 HK, HKD25.75, TPHKD36.30), C&D(1908 HK, HKD15.32, TP HKD21.20)and China Jinmao(817 HK,HKD1.13, TP1.60 HKD),all rated Buy,whichallhavea solidtrack record indeveloping projects for upgrader and luxury demandthat have been notably moreresilient through the recent downcycle andarestill enjoying strong pricing power. Wealso like KE Holdings(BEKE US, Buy, USD20.23, TP USD26.30),which is benefitingfrom market share gains in boththeprimary and secondary markets. HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Valuation charts Valuation and risks Disclosure appendix AnalystCertification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), andany otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Michelle Kwok, Oliver Yu and Stephen Wang, CFA Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC and its affiliates, including theissuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock shoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplinesand investment horizons when making investment decisions