中国房地产：第三天考察总结重拾定价权

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsHSBC Global Research PodcastsStephen Wang*, CFAAnalyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedstephen.wang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2284 1675Michelle Kwok*Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6918Oliver Yu*Analyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedoliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 2050* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesREMDChina ◆◆◆ Find out more Valuation chartsFigure1:SOE developers’ forward PE (x)Note: The averageforward PEmultipleof COLI, CRL, Vanke, Greentown, Yuexiu,C&D Int’l,and Longforis based on Bloomberg consensus.Source: Bloomberg, HSBCFigure3:YTDshare price performance(%)Note: Priced as of16May2025.Source: Bloomberg, HSBC2468101214May-10May-12May-14May-16May-18May-20May-22May-2412M forward PEMean-39-27-25-21-18-11-50-30AgileCIFIYanlordShimaoCGSZ InvestmentYuexiuCoverage averageVankeLongforGreentownCOLICR LandChina JinmaoC&DHSI 4Valuation and risksCR Land1109 HKCurrentprice:HKD25.30Target price:HKD36.30Upside:+43.5%BuyC&DInternational1908 HKCurrent price:HKD14.94Target price:HKD21.20Upside:+41.9%BuyChina Jinmao817HKCurrent price:HKD1.12Target price:HKD1.60Upside:+42.9%BuyKE HoldingsBEKE USCurrent price:USD19.23Target price:USD26.30Upside:+36.8%BuyNote: Priced as of16May2025.*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. and not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations.Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates Disclosure appendixAnalystCertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), andany otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Stephen Wang, CFA, Michelle Kwok and Oliver YuImportant disclosuresEquities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysisHSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stockshoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from theratingbecause research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views and the basis for the rating.From 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis:The target price is based on the analyst’s assessment of the stock’s actual current value,although we expect it to take six to 12months for the market price to reflect this.When the target price is more than 20% above the current share price, the stockwillbe classified as a Buy; when it is between 5% and 20% above the current share price,the stock may be classified as a Buy or aHold; when it is between 5% below and 5% above the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Hold; when it is between5% and 20% below the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Hold ora Reduce; and when it is more than 20%below the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Reduce.Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation or resumption of coverage, changein target price or estimates).Upside/Downside is the percentage difference between the target price and the share price.Prior to this date, HSBC’s rating structure was applied on the following basis:For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of equity for that stock’s domestic or, as appropriate,regional market established by our strategy team. The target price for a stock represented the value the analyst expecte