首席信息官从Gartner炒作周期中获取价值的指南

Gartner Research UnderstandingGartner’s Hype Cycles Philip Dawson, Mandi Bishop, Donna Medeiros 14 May 2024 Understanding Gartner’s Hype Cycles 14 May 2024 - ID G00816827 - 20 min read By Analyst(s): Philip Dawson, Mandi Bishop, Donna Medeiros Initiatives:Technology Innovation and Strategy Gartner Hype Cycles are graphic representations of the maturity,relevancy and adoption rate of emerging and mainstreaminnovations. CIOs and IT leaders can use Hype Cycles andassociated Priority Matrices to strategize roadmaps for investingin the right innovations at the right time. Overview Key Findings Hype Cycles provide a snapshot of the relative market penetration, maturity andbenefit of innovations within a certain segment, such as a technology area orbusiness markets.■Most innovations — technologies, services and disciplines — progress through apattern of overenthusiasm and disillusionment, followed by mainstream adoptionand productivity.■Hype Cycles and Priority Matrices help CIO and IT leaders evaluate innovationsbased on perceived value, business benefit, adoption rate and future direction.■ Recommendations Leverage Gartner Hype Cycles as key inputs to formulate your technology roadmap.Use the insights from Innovation Profiles and illustrative vendor lists as a startingpoint for the strategic analysis of your innovation and technology investmentportfolio.■Exploit the contextualized Hype Cycles to dive deeper into industry-specific views ofvarious innovations to ensure adoption, penetration and maturity for your situation.■Plan for change by developing a strategy that helps you manage the uniquesocioeconomic, regional and industry factors according to your organization’s riskappetite, need for competitive edge, speed and budget.■ Gartner, Inc. | G00816827 Introduction What Is the Hype Cycle? Gartner Hype Cycles provide a graphic representation of the maturity and adoption ofinnovations and how they are potentially relevant for solving real business problems andexploiting new opportunities. Gartner Hype Cycles are developed by expert analystsaccording to a common methodology. Analysis Gartner’s Hype Cycles depict a common pattern that occurs when any innovationemerges. An innovation often progresses through a period of overenthusiasm, to a periodof disillusionment, to an eventual understanding of the innovation’s relevance and role ina market or domain. This document helps Gartner clients: Understand the phases and components of the Hype Cycle and how we positioninnovations■Plan for common pitfalls and opportunities when utilizing Gartner’s Hype Cycles■Develop adoption strategies that reflect their organization’s risk and opportunityprofile priorities■Answer frequently asked questions about Hype Cycles■ Each year, Gartner creates more than 100 Hype Cycles across various domains to helpclients track the maturity and potential of over 1,500 innovations. For a complete list,seeGartner’s page on Hype Cycles. Figure 1: The Hype Cycle Gartner The two axes of the Hype Cycle are: Time (horizontal axis):An innovation will progress through each stage as timepasses. Most Hype Cycles are snapshots that show the relative positions of a set ofinnovations at a single point in time.■ Expectations (vertical axis):The expectations for an innovation will surge anddiminish as it progresses. The level of expectations for an innovation fluctuatesbased on the marketplace’s assessment of its anticipated and confirmed value. Thisaxis highlights the changing sentiment of potential and actual adopters and theshifting pressures surrounding investment decisions.■ We refer to the individual elements mapped on the Hype Cycle as “innovations.” Eachinnovation will be depicted as a dot on the Hype Cycle graphic. Some innovations arespecific technologies, while others are higher-level trends and concepts such asmethodologies and strategies, operating and consumption models, managementdisciplines and standards, competencies, and capabilities. An innovation typically transitions through five stages on its path to productivity: 1.Innovation Trigger:A breakthrough, public demonstration, product launch or otherevent sparks media and industry interest in a technology or other type of innovation. 2.Peak of Inflated Expectations:The excitement about, and expectations for, theinnovation exceeding the reality of its current capabilities. In some cases, a financialbubble may form around the innovation. 3.Trough of Disillusionment:The original overexcitement about the innovationdissipates, and disillusionment sets in due to performance issues, slower-than-expected adoption or a failure to deliver timely financial returns. 4.Slope of Enlightenment:Some early adopters overcome the initial hurdles and beginseeing the benefits of the innovation. By learning from the experiences of earlyadopters, organizations gain a better understanding of where and how theinnovation will deliver significant value (and where it will not). 5.Plateau