2025年全球消费者状况展望报告

State of theGlobal Consumer2025 OUTLOOK Table of Contents 01 Key Themes ConvergencePlanning AheadPent Up Demand Spent 040404 Global Spend Growth Largest StrengthLargest WeaknessSpend Growth Drivers050707 Global Subindustry Trends 1319Strongest GrowthRegional Deep Dive: Spend Today, Save LaterStrongest Acceleration0914Regional Deep Dive: Consistent AccelerationOnline SpendRegional Differences1725Demographics28 Conclusion A Look Ahead32 Introduction Welcome to the latest installment of State of the GlobalConsumer. This quarterly report highlights top trends inconsumer spending across the globe, looking ahead towhich company strategies and sectors are likely to bemost successful in the months ahead. Explore insights into what to expect for consumerspending this 2024 holiday season, and also what mightbe in store for stores across the world in 2025. The report is based on our CE Transact Global dataset, whichcaptures payment account spend in the US, UK, Germany,France, Italy, Spain, and Austria. Key Themes This quarter, three themes stood out as likely to have the mostimpact on business success in coming months: CONVERGENCE Both geographically and demographically, consumer spendoutliers are trending more inline with the pack. With no particulargroup showing outsized spend, companies will spend less timepivoting to chase a “hot” market, and should focus on executionfor appealing to, converting, and retaining their core shopper. PLANNING AHEAD 2 Shoppers are becoming more cautious, spending on categoriesthat represent longer-term or future benefits. Companies thatappeal to shoppers beyond instant gratification and developlonger-term relationships are likely to see success. PENT-UP DEMAND SPENT Post-COVID revenge travel and event overdrive have fizzled out,and consumers are turning back to at-home pursuits, with spendtrends stronger outside major cities with active nightlife. Companies that reinvented themselves post-pandemic may needto dust off their old playbooks and return to pre-COVID strategiesto maintain growth and profitability. Global Spend Growth Largest Strength For 2024Q3, shoppers in Spain and the UK had the onlyacceleration in year over year spend growth (Charts 1 and 2).These are the two countries with the largest y/y declines in spendgrowth, so the upward trend is shifting them back inline with theother countries in our coverage. Improving macroeconomicconditions in both countries are driving this inflection, making thetrend likely to continue through the holiday season and into 2025. Spend Growth by Country YoY 2025 Playbook As economies with recent weaker spend startto recover, businesses may turn focus tobroad-based global growth instead of regionalhotspots. This could mean re-investing in storeportfolios in formerly weak economies,developing products with more universalinstead of local appeal, and expandingmarketing budgets for global reach. Largest Weakness Italy showed the largest growth deceleration in Q3, but this islikely coming off of a strong trend as it remains one of the top-growing countries next to Austria (Charts 1 & 2). Theme: Convergence In Q2, there was a 9.3%difference in consumer spendgrowth between sizzling Italyand tepid Spain. As Q3 closes, inflections inboth countries mean thatdifference has narrowed to amere 3.5%, with Spanish spendgrowth on par with Germany’s(Charts 1 and 2). Spend Growth Drivers The year over year change in average ticket has acceleratedsignificantly in many European countries, especially Spain whereit is driving the recovery in spend growth. However, year over yearticket growth has reverted to negative territory in the US and UK,where inflation previously hit consumers hard (Chart 3). Average Ticket Growth by Country Theme: Convergence Slowdowns in price growth afterinflationary periods may makeshoppers in the affected countriesfeel wealthier as their spendingpower goes farther, a potentialpositive for holiday spend. Global Subindustry Trends The more things change, the more they remain the same. Q3surfaced many surprising new growth subindustries, while alsohighlighting continued growth from historically strong areas. Strongest Growth Globally, the strongest year over year spend growth subindustriesfor consumers were led by insurance, video streaming, and POSlending (Chart 4). Insurance More is being spent on insurance across severalverticals, including Pet, Property, and Health Insurance. Video Streaming Even as streaming services begin consolidation,price increases and better value propositions haveraised spend. 15% Point-of-Sale Lending 21% Buying now and paying later has retainedstrong growth. Theme: Planning Ahead Theme 2 CalloutPlanning ahead and cautionresonate across subindustries thatsaw a large lift in year over yearspend growth. All of these involvespending a little more today forsecurity tomorrow. Insurance purchases guard against future financial hardship.Warehouse Club shoppers are ty