桐昆股份（601233）：2024年净利润提升，在建项目进展顺利

2024NP Improved,Projects underConstruction Well on Track Rating (Maintain):OVERWEIGHTTarget price (RMB):12.45 Huatai Research Annual Results Review 14 May 2025│China (Mainland) Chemical Fibers AnalystZHUANG TingzhouSAC No. S0570519040002SFC No. BQZ933zhuangtingzhou@htsc.com+(86) 10 5679 3939 TongkunGroupreleasedits2024annualreporton25April,reportingtotalrevenue/attributablenetprofit(NP)/recurringNPofRMB101.3/1.20/0.93bn(+23/+51/+105%yoy).In4Q24,totalrevenue/attributableNPcameinatRMB25.3/0.2bn(+21/+283% yoy,-9/+433% qoq). According to the annual report,the company plans to pay a dividend of RMB0.10 (pre-tax) per share, implying apayout ratio of 19.8%. The company’s full-year attributableNPfellbelow ourprevious forecast (RMB1.40bn), mainly due to a subdued industry climate forpolyester, in our view. That said, with the recovery in domestic demand likely tosupport a rebound in the industry chain, we maintain our OVERWEIGHT rating. AnalystZHANG XiongSAC No. S0570523100003SFC No. BVN325zhangxiong@htsc.com+(86) 10 6321 1166 Key data Polyester filament sales continued to grow, overall GPM dippedIn 2024, the company’s 20%-owned associate ZPC saw improved productGPMs ,contributingtoanincreaseininvestmentincomebyRMB390mnyoytoRMB710mn. In terms of core operations, the company sold 9.68/2.14/1.12mt ofPOY/FDY/DTY, up 23/46/13% yoy, at ASPs of RMB6,632/7,408/8,282 per tonne,-2%/-3%/flat yoy, generating revenueof RMB64.22/15.86/9.27bn(+21/+42/+12%yoy).AveragepurchasepricesofmajorrawmaterialsPX/PTA/MEGwereRMB7,006/4,966/4,049pertonne,representingyoychangesof-6/-6/+12%.Narrowing product spreads led to a 0.5pp yoy decline in the company’soverallGPMto 4.6%, while theoverallexpense ratio dropped 0.2pp yoy to 4.7%. Polyester industry chain sentimentto rally due todomestic demandAccording to Baiinfo, as of 25 April 2025, market prices of POY/FDY/DTY had declined by 11/8/14%in 2025 ytdto RMB6,275/6,475/7,600 per tonne, down16/15/18%vsthe2024averages;thepricespreadsofPTA-PX/POYwereRMB248/1,032per tonne, changingby +RMB29/-RMB226 per tonnesince 2025 ytd.Looking ahead, we expect thebusiness climate along thepolyester industry chain tograduallyrallyamid domestic demand recovery, an improving export environment,and a more balanced supply landscape following a slowdown in new capacityadditions. Source:Wind Ongoing project execution toconsolidateindustry leadershipAccording to the annual report, the company currently has 13mtpa of polyester polymerizationcapacityand13.5mtpaofpolyesterfilamentcapacity,withadomestic polyester filament market share of 18%. In 2024, structural capping ofthe main polyester facilities at theFujian Henghai project was completed, whilecivil works for the Anhui Youshun project neared completion. These two projectsaresetto come online in 2Q25 and 3Q25, respectively. Meanwhile, the HengxiangPhase II and Yuxin Phase II projects officially commenced, and the GuangxiPetrochemical polyether project was also launched, with productionscheduledtobegin in 4Q25. As the polyester industry continues to consolidate, the company’sleading position should become more prominent, in our view. Earnings forecasts and valuationGiven the relatively slow recovery of the polyester industry chain, we revise our 2025/2026/2027attributableNPforecaststoRMB1.99/2.38/2.83bn(fromRMB2.12/2.84bnfor2025/2026,down6/16%),implyingEPSofRMB0.83/0.99/1.18.Given its high proportion of polyester business, wevalue thestock at15x2025E PE,below its peers’ average of 17x on Wind consensus. OurtargetpriceofRMB12.45(previous:RMB13.20,basedon15x2025EPE).Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Risks: persistently softdownstream demand; deteriorating competitive landscape. Source:Wind, Huatai Research Source:Wind, Huatai Research Full financials Disclaimers Analyst CertificationI/We, ZHUANG Tingzhou, ZHANG Xiong, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personalviews of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or willbe, directly or indirectly, related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report. General Disclaimers and DisclosuresThis research report has been prepared by Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited (hereinafter referred to as “HFHL”). The information herein is strictly confidential to the recipient. This report is intended for HFHL, its clients and associatedcompanies. Any other person shall not be deemed a client of the Company merely from his or her receipt of this report. This report is based on information deemed reliable and publicly available by HFHL, but HFHL and its associated company(ies)(collectively, hereinafter “Huatai”) makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The opinions, assessments and projections contained herein only reflect the views and judgments at the issuance date. Huataimay issue research reports that contain inconsistent views, assessments an