氯碱周报：下游补库支撑，烧碱现货重心上移

请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 2025年期货市场研究报告第2页第2页PVC：社会库存去化放缓，PVC弱势震荡市场要闻与重要数据价格方面：截至2025-05-09，期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4805元/吨（-34）；华东基差-105元/吨（+34）；华南基差-55元/吨（+34）。现货价格：华东电石法报价4700元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4750元/吨（+0）；华东乙烯法报价：4950元/吨（+0）；华南乙烯法报价：5040元/吨（+0）。供应方面：上游电石平均开工负荷64.41%（+3.45%）；PVC开工率80.34%（+1.01%）；PVC电石法开工率81.33%（+2.33%）；PVC乙烯法开工率77.75%（-2.44%）。停车及检修造成的损失量在11.44万吨（-0.62）需求方面：PVC下游综合开工率在45.99%（+2.05%），其中PVC下游管材开工率在48.13%（+5.00%），PVC下游型材开工率35.90%（+2.50%），PVC下游薄膜开工率68.89%（+3.33%）。下游订单情况：生产企业预售量52.08万吨（-6.30）。生产利润方面：截至2025-05-09，陕西兰炭价格605元/吨（+0）；山东电石价格2980元/吨（+0）；兰炭生产毛利5.13元/吨（+1.73），西北电石生产毛利-38.00元/吨（+50.00）；PVC电石法单品种生产毛利-705.00元/吨（-116.00）；PVC乙烯法单品种生产毛利-652.00元/吨（+89.00）；PVC出口利润12美元/吨（-1）库存方面：PVC厂内库存42.62万吨（+1.51）；PVC社会库存40.98万吨（+0.62），其中PVC华东社会库存36.74万吨（+0.56），PVC华南社会库存4.24万吨（+0.06）市场分析供应端，前期检修企业复产，新增装置检修较少且为常规性检修为主，PVC开工环比上升，总体供应端仍维持高位运行。需求端，PVC下游制品企业开工略有回升但仍处同期低位，PVC管、型材与薄膜开工弱稳，下游市场逢低刚需采购为主，需求端弱势难改。出口端PVC出口价格下跌，出口整体接单交付量环比变化不大，但印度反倾销以及BIS认证政策的不确定性仍会影响PVC出口。库存端厂库累库，社会库存延续去化但去化速率减缓。后期来看PVC供需基本面仍偏弱，现货价格重心震荡走低，但当前PVC绝对价格低位，估值偏低，同时短期内出口端仍存支撑，关注宏观政策及下游需求修复情况。策略中性：PVC供需基本面仍偏弱，现货价格重心震荡走低，但当前PVC绝对价格低位，估值偏低，同时短期内出口端仍存支撑，价格预期维持偏弱震荡，关注宏观政策及下游需求修复情况。风险下游开工环比大幅回升；宏观利好信息释放。 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 2025年期货市场研究报告目录一、烧碱价格&价差...................................................................................................................................6二、PVC价格&价差...................................................................................................................................8三、成本利润..........................................................................................................................................10四、烧碱供应..........................................................................................................................................11五、液氯价格与液氯下游..........................................................................................................................12六、PVC供应..........................................................................................................................................14七、烧碱下游需求....................................................................................................................................15八、PVC下游需求....................................................................................................................................17九、烧碱&PVC库存数据...........................................................................................................................18图表图1：烧碱主力合约....................................................................................................................................................................6图2：液碱32%山东价格............................................................................................................................................................6图3：液碱50%山东价格............................................................................................................................................................6图4：液碱32%江苏价格............................................................................................................................................................6图5：片碱99%新疆价格............................................................................................................................................................6图6：液碱32%山东基差............................................................................................................................................................7图7：液碱50%山东基差............................................................................................................................................................7图8：山东50%-32%液碱...........................................................................................................................................................7图9：50%液碱广东-山东...........................................................................................................................................................7图10：32%液碱江苏-山东.........................................................................................................................................................7图11：SH01-SH05......................................................................................................................................................................7图12：SH05-SH09......................................................................................................................................................................8图13：SH09-SH01......................................................................................................................................................................8图14：PVC主力合约..................................................................................................................................................................8图15：PVC电石法华东价格....................................................................................................