2025年第一季度美国老虎机观察ALL/LNW仍在整合

Global | Gaming 1Q25 US Slot Observations: ALL/LNW StillConsolidating Eilers 1Q25 Slot Survey shows ALL/LNW should continue to consolidateleading market share positions. Both saw strong prints in US GamingOps and premium mix, whilst ALL returned to #1 in Outright sale shipshare (ex-Route), gaining +5pts of ship share in the quarter. Importantly,LNW operating momentum looks unimpaired by litigation disruption and isclearly still a share gainer. IGT performance remains solid, with its sharesconstrained by specific catalysts. Source: Eilers & Krejcik Slot Survey, Jefferies estimates Gaming Operations- From a net install perspective, ALL continued to lead the way andconsolidated lease share in 1Q25, although the quarterly gap between LNW seems to beslowing. ALL delivered 48% of the Big 3 leased unit increase, followed by LNW at 41% andIGT at 12%. We expect that ALL delivered almost entirely premium units in 1Q25, whilst LNWdelivered ~85%, both strong premium mix numbers. ALL holds ~40% share of existing lease /participation games v LNW at 22%. Source: Eilers & Krejcik Slot Survey, Jefferies estimates Outright Sale -Outright sale ship share movements in 1Q25 show a recovery in share from ALLagainst a weaker 4Q24. We expected this to be transitory, given flagged 27% share of forward12-month orders. 1Q25 share for ALL at 29% (ex-Route), +5pts q-q, was top of the market.LNW share moderated to 20%, -6pts q-q. Forward 12 month share for both remains robust,giving us more confidence in our view that ALL/LNW consolidate top of market positions. 12-month expectations for ALL/LNW ship share sit at 29% and 25% respectively. New product -New product surveys and anticipated product supports the view that ALL/LNW consolidate share. ALL maintains the #1 and #2 most anticipated premium leased game(Phoenix LinkandHouse of the Dragon) followed by LNW at #3 and #4 (Huff N' Even More PoffI've had EnoughandRampage). From a cabinet perspective, ALL's latest cabinet sits at #1(Baron Portrait),followed byBaron Uprightat #3. LNW'sCosmic Uprightsits at #2. Baron Portraitmomentum is consistent with our channel checks, and should drive upside to 2H25 earnings. Industry demand- Industry demand and health has come into question with recentmacroeconomic events. We view the slots subsegment as resilient, illustrated by observationsof historical GGR. Recent GGR prints (e.g. Mar-25 LV slots +4.5% as well as quarterly resultsfrom US customers indicate demand remains healthy. In particular, CZR US (Katz, Buy, US$36) noted strong levels of demand in Apr-25, as well as record bookings for FY25/26. BYD US(Katz, Buy, US$84) and RRR US (Katz, Hold, US$43) both re-iterated the positive sentiment. Our view on ALL & LNW; note IGT:It is clear to us ALL/LNW will consolidate share in bothGaming Ops and Outright Sale in the US.For ALL AU(Erman, Buy, A$80) we see upside toconsensus 2H25 and FY26 estimates as we expect ALL to indicate a 2H earnings skew at their1H25 result on 14 May.For LNW(Katz, Buy, US$121) we see ongoing product momentum,and forecast a DD EBITDA CAGR through FY26 with improving FCF conversion. We see valuein both names with recent consumer-discretionary pullbacks and the historical resilience ofGaming, and specifically Slot, GGR. Recent US Gaming read-throughs and GGR data givesus more confidence on earnings despite macroeconomic related concerns. As forIGT(Katz,Hold, US$18) product performance remains at #3 in present share and forward expectations,while the gaming unit is pending a private sale-process, while its shares are also constrainedby its pending Italy lotto contract for the time being. Kai Erman * | Equity Analyst+61 293642997 | kerman@jefferies.com David Katz ^ | Equity Analyst(212) 323-3355 | dkatz@jefferies.com Henry Copley * | Equity Associate+61 293642932 | hcopley@jefferies.com Michael Simotas * | Equity Analyst61 2 9364 2994 | msimotas@jefferies.com Company Valuation/Risks For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300. Analyst Certification: I, Kai Erman, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report. I, David Katz, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report. I, Henry Copley, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(i