缺乏利好驱动，沪锌维持空配

分析师：祁玉蓉从业资格证号：F03100031投资咨询证号：Z0021060金属期货（期权）研究室010-8229 5006Email：qiyurong@swhysc.com《宏源期货有色金属年报_锌：矿端供给偏紧，锌价重心或上移20231215》《宏源锌季报：原料偏紧支撑锌价，关注上方宏观扰动20240329》《宏源期货有色金属半年报_锌：原料偏紧 难 有 较 大 改 善 ， 锌 价 下 方 支 撑 较 强《宏源期货有色金属季报_锌：短期原料支撑依旧，关注宏观方向变动》《宏源期货有色金属年报_锌：原料偏紧《宏源期货有色金属季报_锌：宏微观背离，锌价重心下移20250401》请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分2025年5月9日 研究所TEL：相关图表相关报告：20240625》或将改善》缺乏利好驱动，沪锌维持空配 目录报告摘要：........................................................................................................................................................................... 1一、锌市行情回顾：下跌企稳............................................................................................................................................. 5二、锌精矿：趋松预期不改................................................................................................................................................. 7三、供给端：稳中有增...................................................................................................................................................... 10（一）利润：持续好转.........................................................................................................................................................10（二）生产：稳中有增.........................................................................................................................................................11四、需求端：偏弱.............................................................................................................................................................. 13（一）下游：逢低补库.........................................................................................................................................................13（二）终端：宏观引导为主.................................................................................................................................................16（三）出口窗口持续关闭.....................................................................................................................................................18五、库存与供需平衡.......................................................................................................................................................... 18六、行情展望及投资策略................................................................................................................................................... 21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分第2页 图表目录图表1：SMM1#锌锭平均价.......................................................................................................................................................5图表2：沪锌主力收盘价............................................................................................................................................................5图表3：基差................................................................................................................................................................................6图表4：期货收盘价（电子盘）：LME三个月锌...................................................................................................................6图表5：现货升贴水-上海地区...................................................................................................................................................6图表6：现货升贴水-广东地区...................................................................................................................................................6图表7：现货升贴水-天津地区...................................................................................................................................................6图表8：LME锌升贴水（0-3）.................................................................................................................................................6图表9：近月-连一.......................................................................................................................................................................7图表10：连一-连二.....................................................................................................................................................................7图表11：连二-连三.....................................................................................................................................................................7图表12：沪锌活跃合约成交持仓比..........................................................................................................................................7图表13：国产锌精矿价格..........................................................................................................................................................8图表14：进口锌精矿价格..........................................................................................................................................................8图表15：全球锌精矿月度产量..................................................................................................................................................9图表16：中国锌精矿月度开工率..............................................................................................................................................9