这就是人工智能将如何影响政府中心

© Oliver WymanINTRODUCTIONArtificial intelligence (AI) is set to transform our world, and the ongoing discourse nowcenters on the strategic imperative of optimizing its potential — and how to do that. It isimportant that organizations pivotal to a nation such as centers of government maintain acutting-edge position in comprehending and effectively deploying this technology, but alsothat they have a nuanced understanding of its associatedrisksThe center of government refers to the institution or group of institutions that offer directsupport to a country’s leadership and aid in the overall management of government. Today,the center of government plays a central role in advancing national agendas, and therefore itis crucial that they possess a comprehensive understanding of AI and utilize itjudiciously.The purpose of this report is to serve as a concise guide on how to effectively leverage AI ina way that maximizes benefits while minimizing downsides. The subsequent sections providea comprehensive overview of AI, with a particular emphasis on generativeAI.We begin by presenting a brief history of AI and explaining why we are seeing so muchchange today. We examine both the potentials, limitations, and risks of AI. The report alsodelves into how AI can bolster both the administrative and strategic functions of the centerof government, including process enhancement, knowledge management, content creation,and communicationsupport.As change is imminent, those who approach AI with prudence, enthusiasm, rationality,planning, and flexibility will find their journeys to be smoother and moresuccessful.UNDERSTANDING THE AI LANDSCAPETo grasp how the center of government can harness the potential of AI, it is first crucialto gain a comprehensive understanding of the AI technology landscape, as well as itscapabilities andlimitations.The concept of AI has existed for a considerable period, but in recent times, the availability oftools, particularly in machine learning, has facilitated its scalability and exponentialgrowth. © Oliver WymanA BRIEF HISTORY OF AI AND ITS RECENT ACCELERATIONAI is a concept that has evolved over more than 70 years. In 1950, Alan Turing introducedit in his seminal paper titled ‘Computing Machinery and Intelligence’, writing: “I proposeto consider the question, ‘Can machines think?’”, adding, “We may hope that machines willeventually compete with men in all purely intellectual fields.”1The leaps and bounds in neural networks from the 1940s until the 2000s were also keyto AI’s development — these are data structures or computational models that arebroadly based on the design of the brain. This journey began in 1943 when scientistsmodelled a simple neural network using electrical circuits. There were many setbacks inthe development, but neural networks have strengthened over the past few decades ascomputational power increased, data sets grew in terms of both quantity and quality, andtraining algorithms developed. Today, they are a core part of AItechnology.The question arises as to why there has been a sudden surge in AI and neural networks,given that they have been in development for decades. The answer lies in two pivotaladvancements in the past decade, namely the development of software (TensorFlow) andhardware (graphic processingunits).TensorFlow is an open-source machine-learning library, released by Google in 2015. Itis designed to facilitate the creation and training of various machine-learning models,particularly neural networks. Its key breakthrough is that it is able to efficiently handle andprocess largedatasets.Meanwhile, graphic processing units (or GPUs) are specialized hardware designed for renderinggraphics in computers — their ability to handle many tasks in parallel means they are particularlygood at accelerating computations (such as the training of complex machine-learningmodels).So, in summary, the bold AI technologies we are witnessing today have a long history andthey have complexified over decades, but recent leaps and bounds in both software andhardware have led to exponentialchange.THE IMPACT OF AI TODAYThe utilization of generative AI technologies has witnessed an unparalleled surge, asevidenced by the global AI market’s valuation of 241.8 billion in 2023, up from 108.4 billionin 2020, according to Statista.2Furthermore, a Reuters report indicates that while it tookNetflix 1,278 days, the iPhone 574 days, and Facebook 304 days to reach one million users,ChatGPT achieved this feat just five days after its public release in November 2022.1Alan M. Turing, “Computing Machinery and Intelligence,” Mind 49: 433-460, 1950.2Statista, “Artificial Intelligence — Worldwide.” Accessed November 06, 2023.3Blockchain Centre, “ChatGPT Reached 1 Million Users 250x faster than Netflix”, March 29, 2023. 3 © Oliver WymanThe widespread use of AI will boost productivity. In fact, an MIT study found that artificialintelligence is expected to raise global productivity by up to 50%.4The impact of