重新思考城市交通和城市旅游革命

© Oliver WymanAPPROACHIn this white paper, we define a framework to analyse urban mobility scenarios. Weassessed five scenarios based on their potential impact on urban mobility and feasibility ofimplementation. Finally, we validated the approach by applying the scenarios to the mobilitysystems of three citiesarchetypes.ABSTRACTAlstom and Oliver Wyman share a joint mission to make the world of mobility more sustainable.Therefore, we have teamed up to investigate concepts and potential scenarios for urbanmobility evolution. While Alstom is focussing on utilizing smart mobility to accelerate themodal shift by making rail more attractive and affordable, Oliver Wymanhas gained a broadexpertise in collaborative development of mobilitysolutions.Mass transit, and particularly rail, is the backbone of any advanced public mobility system,while other mobility modes, such as electric cars or micro mobility services, bridge the gapbetween the public offering and mobilitydemand.There is a strong trend towards mobility services in the private sector, as shared and digitalservices offer options that go beyond privately owned cars. These services are expected tocontinue growing over the next decade but will not provide the solution to the challenge ofmaking urban mobility more sustainable. This would mean making it less carbon-intensiveand more climate-friendly, less polluting, and a feature that enhances the liveability of citiesby ensuring a certain level of efficientsynchronization.Thus, extensive planning is required to reap the benefits of a strong public transportationbackbone working with new mobility services. Policymakers, passengers, and transportcompanies require a solution that is multimodal, has seamless transitions, and providesguidance and equal access to mobility for all members ofsociety.Every urban ecosystem is unique and has a different starting point for its evolution. Byemploying Generative AI, we developed an assessment framework considering five different,potentially disruptive scenarios. This can be a first step for mobility stakeholders to assesstheir priorities in building a transformative plan on how mobility should be managed withinan urbancontext. © Oliver WymanINTRODUCTIONUrbanization and population growth have led to an increase in traffic congestion and a demandfor alternative mobility solutions for passengers and freight in urban areas. An inefficienttransportation systems and lack of infrastructure can lead to increased travel time and more airpollution and road accidents — all of which negatively impact quality of life in urbancommunities.This white paper aims to explore five potential scenarios to improve urban mobility andassess their feasibility and potential: the 15-minute city, car-free zones, shared mobility only,mobility orchestrator, and autonomous mobility only. Each scenario has the potential totransform the way we move around urban areas and address the issues of traffic congestionand demand for alternative mobilityneeds.First, the 15-minute city is a concept that proposes the creation of neighbourhoods where allessential services and amenities are within a 15-minute distance. This reduces the need forlong commutes, reducing traffic congestion and airpollution.Second, car-free zones envision a future where cars are banned from urban centres,and alternative modes of transport, such as public transport, walking, and cycling, areprioritized. The elimination of traffic congestions would help create urban areas with betterair quality and more publicspaces.Third, shared mobility only is a scenario where people use shared transportation modes,such as mass transit, ride-hailing, car-sharing, and bike-sharing, while private vehicles arebanned from urban centres. This scenario extends car-free zones, while allowing for sharedmobility only, in effect reducing the attractiveness of owning a privatecar.Fourth, mobility orchestrator envisions the use of artificial intelligence and data analytics tooptimize transportation networks and provide real-time information to travellers. Orchestratingmobility modes improves the efficiency and reliability of urban transportation, while reducingtravel time and congestion. Our mobility orchestrator scenario would work with popular mobilityas a service (MaaS) offering, which mainly act as a booking tool, while the orchestrator aims toactively organize and optimize all transportation offerings within a certainarea.Finally, autonomous mobility only is a scenario where all transportation is provided byautonomous vehicles, eliminating the need for drivers, and allowing for a self-optimizingecosystem. As such, this reduces traffic congestion and accidents while improving the safetyand efficiency of urbantransportation.In the following, stakeholders and technical requirements are defined, which are essentialfor the success of the five scenarios. Additionally, the scenarios are assessed and rankedbased on their future potential andfeasibility. © Oliver WymanST