2024年亚太地区批发银行展望

INTRODUCTION In 2024, wholesale banks in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region need to continue monitoringthe macroeconomic environment globally and how it may affect them regionally.Shifting interest rates in different countries and the United States proposal to implementthe Basel III endgame for bank capital requirements will affect both global liquidityand the investment decisions and participation choices of banks in Asia. With localmacroeconomic paths and geopolitical dynamics as core revenue drivers, we havedetailed three scenarios for 2024-25 for APAC wholesale banks: global soft-landingbase case scenario, APAC macro recovery scenario, and a worse-than-expected APACmacro scenario.Lastly, we describe the management actions that banks should take to best navigate2024 andbeyond. In US$ billion,2019–2025FLendingScenario rangeStrengthened APAC macroAPAC weaknessSecurities ServicesNote: forecasts do not include credit losses.Source: Coalition-Greenwich, Oliver Wyman analysis Global soft-landing scenarioWe believe a global soft-landing is the base case for 2024-25. In this scenario, APAC wholesale banks would haveto deal with an economic climate of slow growth and lower global liquidity injection into Asia compared with thepreviousdecade.In Japan, we would expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates gradually to help negate the sellingpressure on the Japanese yen, and there would be sustained improvement in Japanese corporate profitability.In contrast, China’s interest rates would remain subdued due to continued macroeconomic weakness in 2024,but this could bolster the internationalization of the Chinese yuan due to attractive borrowing rates. Whilethere could still be default events, real estate and local government debts would remain relatively containeddue to the early signs of policy support emerging. Most Asian currencies would rebound from 10-year lowsagainst the US dollar and create trade tailwinds, as US dollar interest rate reductions would begin to take place.A global soft-landing would also see no major escalation of geopolitical conflict. However, we would expectsupply chain evolutions to continue amid moderate sanctions, for example, soaring exports of componentparts to “China+1” countries, such as Vietnam. Supply chain restructuring would, in turn, drive corporatefootprint evolution. For example, global multinational corporations would reprioritize, and Asian and Chinesecorporates would push for increasedinternationalization.The outcome of this base case would be revenue stabilization for the APAC wholesale banking industry, withcorporate and transaction banking benefiting in particular. APAC revenue pools in 2024 would be projectedto expand by 1% year-on-year, with markets and investment banking increasing by 4% and 17%, respectively,transaction banking and securities services declining by 3%, and lending remaining steady. Net interest margin(NIM) growth in APAC would also likely be buoyed by the growth in volume offset by a slower rise in the interestrates of local currencies. Japan would continue to see improvements in equity markets and macro businesses.China-focused investment banking and equities would remain muted with slight improvement due to bottomedvaluations attracting capital. 3 APAC macro recovery scenarioIn the bull case scenario, the recovery of China’s macroeconomic environment would be strongerthan expected, resulting in the country drawing global liquidity quickly. We would expect moregovernmentand regulatory intervention, with a sharp focus on restoring confidence, to help acceleratethe recovery.Sustained improvement in Japan’s economic climate would pave the way for the BoJ toincrease theinterest rates faster. There would be accelerated intra-regional collaboration, especiallybetween APACand Gulf countries, to boost investment inAPAC.Early economic data in the year does not seem to support a recovery scenario,yet.For APAC wholesale banks, the outcome of this scenario would be robust growth in industryrevenues supported by extended NIM expansion. Banks would enjoy the return of equity andorigination-basedrevenues.Worse-than-expected APAC macro scenarioThe bear case scenario would see sustained weakness persist in the APAC macroeconomic environment.We would expect various shockwaves. There would be major defaults in China debt, coupled with aweaker-than-expected ability of the Chinese banking sector to absorb losses, creating more credit riskthan expected. The return of heightened geopolitical tensions would lead to further price pressure.Japan would see a potential setback to corporate profitability, resulting in the interest rate remaininglow or negative. Inflation imported to APAC would cause weakness to persist in both local macrobusinesses and APACcurrencies.We believe that the increasing policy intervention means it is likely to avoid the worsescenario.The outcome of this scenario would be credit losses to both investor and regional banks. Originationwould be