私人信贷的下一步行动

© Oliver WymanWhy read this report?Private credit is looking to catch the next wave of growth — in asset-basedlending. In part, that is to sustain the sector’s extraordinary growth and tosatisfy the sea change in allocations to credit. But firms are also tappinginto it because leveraged lending has become more crowded. How large isthe addressable market? Our new estimates suggest specialty finance is a$5.5 trillion asset opportunity in the United States alone, where private credittoday has less than a 5% share.The need to secure access to these new asset classes is prompting privatecredit players to change tack, looking to partner up with banks rather thanbe their adversaries. We explore what Private Credit 2.0 might look like — forbanks and investors. © Oliver WymanIS THE BOOM IN PRIVATE CREDIT LOSING STEAM?Private credit firms have enjoyed a “golden moment,”as Blackstone president Jonathan Gray put it lastyear, while banks have been on the back foot fromthe sharpest increase in interest rates in 45 years. In2023, these non-bank lenders funded a whopping86% of leveraged loans, up from 61% in 2019,according to PitchBook LCD. But one year on fromthe failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse,the strongest banks are ramping up their lendinginto the broadly syndicated bank loan markets —a key way to finance leveragedbuyouts.In the first quarter, 28 companies arranged bankloans to refinance $11.8 billion of debt that waspreviously provided by private credit firms, accordingto PitchBook data. Put another way, banks have beenable to claw back just over half of the $20 billion thatshifted in favor of private credit firms in2023.So, have we reached peak private credit?Thehistory of banking suggests that, on the contrary,another wave of bank disintermediation is likely.The shift of lending away from banks has a longhistory. Astonishingly, bank lending as a shareof total borrowing has been falling for 50 years.The 1973-1974 inflation and interest rate shockcreated more profound disintermediation frombanks than the rise of private credit today,as investment grade companies switched toborrowing from the market via commercialpaper andbonds.The rise of high yield bonds in the 1980swas another large wave, as were the variousadvances in securitization, each enabling moreborrowers to bypass banks. And since 2008,mid-market corporates and mortgage borrowinghave increasingly moved away from banks. Inall, banks’ share of private lending in the USeconomy has fallen from 60% in 1970 to 35%last year, according to a new National Bureau ofEconomic Research paper (See Exhibits 1 and2).Exhibit 1: Waves of bank disintermediation1974–Mid 1980s1980s–Mid 1990sMid 1990s–2000s2000s2008–20222022–presentCommercialpaperCorporatelendingMortgage-backedsecuritiesHigh yieldCMBSCredit cardsAuto loansSub-primemortgagesSyntheticcredit riskMid-marketLeveragedfinanceDiverse specialtyfinanceCommercialreal estateSource: Oliver Wyman analysis © Oliver WymanWhat can we learn from the history of bankdisintermediation?First, it typically takes at leasttwo to three years for weakened banks to get overlarge interest rate shocks.While major banks areback on their skis, regional banks will take longerto get the rates of interest on their assets andliabilities back in balance. Lending by US regionalbanks remains anemic, providing opportunitiesfor private credit players to fill thegap.Secondly, outdated financial regulations oftenexacerbate such shocks.In the 1970s and 1980s,Regulation Q, which imposed ceilings on interestrates offered to depositors in the United States,exacerbated deposit flight to money market funds.Similarly, the Fed’s overnight reverse repo facilitytriggered deposit flight as the Fed raised rates. Oldrules are revised slowly — Reg Q was introduced in1933 — disadvantagingbanks. 4Third, financial product innovation is avital enabler.Money market mutual funds,introduced in the United States in 1971, facilitateddisintermediation by letting savers invest in adiverse range of instruments. Today, new privatecredit structures are giving investors access to assetspreviously confined to banks’ balance sheets such asequipmentfinance.Fourth, new regulation aimed at addressingbanks’ vulnerabilities can inadvertently pusheven more lending elsewhere.While new Fedproposals to increase bank capital (dubbed the“Basel endgame”) are being recalibrated, furtheradjustments to liquidity, capital rules, and riskmanagement practices are nonethelesslikely. © Oliver WymanSpecialty finance lending looks a promising newseam for private credit companies to mine.Oneattraction of this market — worth $5.5 trillion in theUnited States alone on Oliver Wyman estimates andwhich includes equipment leases, trade finance, androyalty agreements — is greater diversification andthe specialist skills required. Private credit has lessthan 5% of these types of loans, mostly packagedfor insurers. Furthermore, infrastructure loans,commercial real estate, and mortgages each offer