固定收益投资的杠铃收费

© Oliver WymanWhy read thisreport?A trio of recent records tells us something important about capital markets:that the “barbell effect” long associated with equity investing is now playingout in the bond markets in earnest. This shift underscores just how much themarket structure of finance ischanging.At one end we see inflows to bond ETFs are up 50% this year on last (buildingon the acceleration since the Fed put up rates). At the other, new analysissuggests the top six listed alternative players saw 21% net new moneyinto their credit strategies in the 12 months to June versus just 1% fortraditionalfirms.With public bond markets becoming more automated and private creditgaining ground through partnerships with major banks, the landscape offinancing is evolving rapidly. This piece explores how these trends will impactcapital markets, asset managers, and banksalike. © Oliver WymanA trio of recent records tells us something importantabout capital markets: that the “barbell effect” longassociated with equity investing is now playingout in the bond markets in earnest. This shiftunderscores just how much the marketstructureof finance ischanging.Investors have poured nearly $190 billion into USfixed income exchange traded funds this year toAugust according to Morningstar, 50% higher thanthis time last year. Last month Ares raised thelargest private credit fund in history at $34 billion.And 141major banks have formed partnerships withprivate credit firms to distribute their loans in thelast year — up from two the yearbefore.My guiding view has been that investor flowswould polarise into a barbell. At one end, investorswould flock to passive funds and exchange tradedfunds to access benchmark returns cheaply andconveniently. At the other, investors seekinghigher returns would increasingly allocate fundsto specialist managers investing in private equity,hedge funds and thelike.The conventional “core” traditional active managers,caught in the middle, would be pressured to tune uptheir investment engines, become more specialised,or merge for scale, I argued 20 years ago in aMorgan Stanley researchnote.The barbell has tolled. At one end ETFs have grownfrom $200 million in 2003 to $14.0 trillion at the endof August, according to ETFGI. At the other, overhalf of all the management fees in the investmentindustry will go to alternative asset managers in2024, up from 28% in 2003, according to MorganStanley andOliver Wymanestimates.(See exhibit1.)The barbell effect is now reshapingbondinvestingFirst, there is a sea change in allocationstocredit after 15 years of zero or negativerates.Investors are fundamentally rethinking thecomposition of their portfolios. Since the Fedstarted raising rates, the share of US bond fundsmanaged in ETF format has surged from 21% to28%, according to Morningstar data.(See exhibit2.)Investors are demanding more for far less. Activebond ETFs have a median net expense ratio of0.40%, undercutting 0.65% of bond mutual funds,according to State Street GlobalInvestors.(See exhibit3.)At the other end of the industry, leading alternativefirms are pulling ahead, despite the indigestionin private markets. The top six listed alternativeplayers saw a whopping 21% net new money pouredinto their credit strategies in the year to June 2024compared with just 1% for all traditionalfirms.(See exhibit 4and5.)THE BARBELL TOLLS FOR FIXED INCOMEINVESTING1. Updated to 14 partnerships to reflect additional partnership announcement post-publication of this article in the FinancialTimes 3 © Oliver WymanRevenue growth projections byproduct2003–2027, $billions28%acrossHFs andPMs139%5%26%15%11%2021~430200362%5%~1303%2%1. No split between Hedge Funds and Private markets in 2003sampleSource:Oliver Wymanand Morgan StanleyResearchExhibit 2:The barbell effect accelerated in fixed income funds from the first fed rate rise in2021Cumulative fixed income flows into US ETFsand mutual fundsYE 2017–July 2024, USD billions02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002017YE2019202020212022Bond mutual fundssaw redemptionson Fed first hike asinvestment paradigmshiftedETFs and passive MFsActive MFsNote: Excludes fund of funds andfeedersSource:Morningstar Median net expense ratioActive fixed income ETFs vs. active mutual funds0.40%0.65%Active FI ETFsActive FI MFsExhibit 4:Fixed income NNM for largest alternative players is robust and far higher than traditionalNNM in credit strategies for selected managers12 months to H1 2024, %23221917151BrookfieldCarlyleAresBlackstoneKKRApolloGlobal longonly AMs1. Blackstone, Apollo, Ares, Brookfield, Carlyle, KKR; 2. Last twelve months; Notes: Does not include 2Q’19 LTM for Brookfield, creditflowsnot available prior to acquisition of Oaktree; In-year flows exclude acquisitions; Estimates KKR for 2019-2022, extrapolatedassuming © Oliver WymanAverage credit strategy NNM as a share of total credit AUMfor selected asset managers112 months to H1 2019–12 months to H1 20242H1’19H1’20H1’21H1’22H1’23H1’24202116231421annu