经济衰退中企业的三大制胜策略

ContentsExecutive Summary.Strategic implications for companies facing distress.Navigating complexity in a challenging market.Restructuring plans need to reflect the rising complexity.Clear vision, stakeholder engagement andcommunication are key.030910110102Insurance management and risk mitigation:Transfer relevant risks and contain costs.Insurance portfolio optimisation.Emerging risks mitigation: Staying ahead of the curve.Additional liquidity creation.Realising savings through risk finance optimisation.Environmental, social, and governance improvementin preparation for divestment.12141516 03 171819Long-term sustainable labour costmanagement.Workforce optimisation.Skills strategy and framework.Health and benefits management.Conclusion. ExecutivesummaryIn today’s volatile and uncertain businesslandscape, organisations face numerouschallenges that can have solvency and liquidityimplications with the risk of pushing themtowards potential insolvency or restructuring.The economic environment was challengingbefore and during the pandemic but governmentsupport helped businesses weather the storm.However, recent inflation, increased interestrates, supply chain issues, client demand incertain sectors, and generally tougher financingconditions have led to increased insolvencyrates. Whilst these issues are currently becomingmore benign, debt levels remain high andliquidity could become an issue for entitiesnot fully adapted to the current environment.Macro-economic and geopolitical challenges,the pandemic, as well as investments in futuretechnologies have increased debt by nearly15% since the outbreak and spreadof COVID-19 in 2019-2020. 3,0003,2003,4003,6003,8004,0004,2004,4004,6004,8005,0005,20020082009201020112006200701 | Volume of debt provided by MFIsThe volume of loans increased significantly since, driven by once favorable lending environments,global disruptions and challenges, as well as investments in future technologies.Loans vis-a-vis euro area NFCs1reported by MFIs2excl. ESCBEUR bn, Eurozone1. NFCs =Non-financial corporations; 2. MFIs = Monetary financial institutions; 3. ESCB = Central banks of the European system.Source:Eurostat, Oliver Wyman 20122013201420152004201720183 This coupled with corporate borrowing rates being higher than at any time in the past decade mean that most entitieswill enter a more financially stressful environment in the coming years. Bankruptcy data across some of Europe’s largereconomies is already trending significantly upwards.02 | Insolvencies in EuropeThe lower than normal number of insolvencies in 2020-2022 indicates that financing was available for distressed corporates in these years.200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202001020073020405060110120130140150160170180190200210to easy access to financingand eased insolvencyBusiness insolvencies in EuropeIn thousand cases, absolute, annual, end of period COVID-19 slump asfiling obligations 1. Loans to non-financial corporations provided by financial institutions4.34.44.54.64.74.84.95.05.15.22018201920202021+16%03 | Debt volume and interest rates increased significantly in parallelLoans1outstanding and ECB lending facility rateIn € trillion and in percent, Eurozone 04 | Corporate borrowing rateAs central bank interest rates have risen, corporate borrowing rates too increased from 2022 onwardsIn corporate borrowing rate 2004 – 2024, Eurozone, in %200620072008200920100.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.0 2011201220132014201520162017 In the World Economic Forum’sGlobal Risks Report 2024, published in partnershipwith Marsh McLennan, economic downturn and inflation are among the top tenrisks in the short to medium term. These are likely to have an impact fororganisations across the globe.05 | Global risks ranked by severity over the short term (2 years)Source:World Economic Forum Global RisksPerception Survey 2023-2024.6thLack of economic opportunity7thInflation8thInvoluntary migration9thEconomic downturn10thPollution1stMisinformation and disinformation2ndExtreme weather events3rdSocietal polarization4thCyber insecurity5thInterstate armed conflict6thLack of economic opportunity7thInflation8thInvoluntary migration9thEconomic downturn10thPollution1stMisinformation and disinformation2ndExtreme weather events3rdSocietal polarization4thCyber insecurity5thInterstate armed conflict6thLack of economic opportunity7thInflation8thInvoluntary migration9thEconomic downturn10thPollution1stMisinformation and disinformation2ndExtreme weather events3rdSocietal polarization4thCyber insecurity5thInterstate armed conflict To help organisations navigate these difficulttimes, Marsh McLennan has developed acomprehensive survival guide to assist owners,management, and external stakeholdersduring challenging periods.This guide incorporates valuable insights fromindustry experts and thought leaders, offeringpractical strategies and solutions for variousscenarios, such as insolvency, restructuring,and navigating difficult times.It co