2025年的十大保险与可持续发展趋势

1Oliver Wyman–A business of Marsh McLennan 01Rethink your approach to climatescenario analysisAs climate risks increase, the insurance industry canexpect more regulatory scrutiny, rapid changes in therisk-return dynamics, but also unexpected new sourcesof growth opportunities. A recent example of regulatorychange is the European Insurance and OccupationalPensions Authority’s (EIOPA) proposal for higher capitalcharges for fossil fuel investments. Insurers shouldstress test their balance sheets and business plansagainst various scenarios, including regulatory changes,to identify major risks and opportunities. Many insurersstill treat scenario analysis as a compliance task ratherthan a strategic tool, unlike many banks and investorswhich use it to guide lending and investment decisions.Key areas to explore include how emission-reductioncommitments affect business under different transitionscenarios and how various strategies perform underdifferent policyconditions.As climate change accelerates and transition risks grow,insurers must focus on immediate dangers and be readyto adapt to new guidance on short-term scenarios. Theyshould also question the effectiveness of historically-calibrated catastrophe models and their ability toaccurately predict climate-related risks like floods andwildfires. Additionally, they need to start incorporatingtipping points into their scenario analysis — ignoringthese is no longer tenable given their increasedlikelihood and potential impact.02Strengthen climate governanceThis outlook has significant implications for corporategovernance. Boards must dedicate more time tooverseeing new processes like scenario analysis andtransition planning, reviewing mandatory disclosures,and evaluating emissions reduction targets and relatedperformance indicators for executives. The stakes arehigh, as poorly defined targets can lead to reputationaldamage and greenwashing risks. Boards are lookingfor guidance on managing their responsibilities and areaware of the conflicting demands from activist investorsfrom all sides. This also places increasing demandson sustainability teams to ensure boards receive thedocumentation and analysis needed, requiring themto work with group functions and business units tosynthesize and analyze data and drive convergence onpolicy and strategy. 03Approach transition plans as astrategic planning exerciseIn just a few years, the role of climate transition planshas evolved. What began as a framework for insurersto meet net zero commitments has turned into anothermandatory disclosure. Hopefully this does not resultin a box-ticking approach to what should instead be astrategic planning exercise, albeit one that sets out thecompany’s articulation of the role it intends to play indelivering the net-zero transition, how it will be definingand measuring success, and the specific actions it willtake to get there. It’s crucial to clarify the narrative fromthe start. Before diving into detailed disclosures orplanning, ask, “What story do I want to tell to motivatethe right actions?” and identify the primary audience.This can guide all subsequent work. While measuredemissions may be part of the narrative, they are notnecessarily the best indicators of real-world impact orbusiness action for insurers. The focus should rather beon how insurers underwrite, manage claims, and investto support the climate transition.Given the uncertain outlook, insurers must be ready toadapt their transition plans to changing circumstances.This means understanding how the success of theirplans depends on external factors like policy andregulation, as well as broader decarbonizationprogress. Insurers should develop and monitor leadingtransition indicators to track their actions and those ofgovernments, companies, and societies. Monitoringthese indicators can help inform decisions andadjustments to plans as needed. Leading insurers willalso start to incorporate nature considerations into theirtransition plans, following forthcoming guidance fromrelevantorganizations.As climate change accelerates andtransition risks grow, insurers mustfocus on immediate dangers and beready to adapt to new guidance onshort-term scenarios 04Build a name-level transitionassessment capabilityAs uncertainty about the transition increases andthe challenge of meeting decarbonization targetsgrows, the ability to assess companies’ transitionplans becomes more critical. Climate transition planassessment tools offer a more comprehensive viewof companies’ transition prospects and real-worldemissions reduction opportunities than just lookingat financed emissions or insurance-related emissions.This is another area where insurers can learn fromthe experience of the banking industry, where theseapproaches are now widely used.05Develop new offerings to supportadaptation and resilienceArguably, property and casualty (P&C) insurers’primary adaptation role is to address the financialconsequences of mounting climate impacts. However,cash al