2024年全球药品使用趋势报告-展望至2028（英）

OUTLOOK TO 2028 JANUARY2 0 2 4 Introduction With the World Health Organization’s declaration on May 5, 2023, of the end ofthe COVID-19 public health emergency, attention has shifted to the preventionand treatment of other communicable diseases as well as non-communicablediseases, and the critical contributions of medicines globally. Breakthroughtherapies launched over the past decade for multiple diseases are reshapingpatient care in many areas and the outlook for medicines use – and the relatedspending - through 2028 is higher than prior forecasts as more novel drugsbecome available and despite a significant downward revision of the outlook forCOVID-19 vaccines and therapeutics. The largest driver of medicine spending growth throughthe next five years is still expected to be the availabilityand use in developed markets of innovative therapeuticsand offset by losses of exclusivity and the lower costsof generics and biosimilars. Traditionally, innovativemedicine growth has occurred most in the yearsimmediately following launch, whereas recent yearsand the forecast outlook show growth driven by olderproducts. This mix of spending growth between volume-driven growth, and mix-driven changes in the cost oftherapy are showing most geographies shifting to moreexpensive therapies, reflecting the broader availabilityand patient access to medicines with higher clinical value. discussion by all stakeholders about the value, cost, androle of medicines over the next five years in the contextof overall healthcare spending. The study was produced independently by theIQVIA Institute for Human Data Science as a publicservice, without industry or government funding. Thecontributions to this report by Mohit Agarwal, AurelioArias, Tanya Bhardwaj, Urvashi Porwal, Alan Thomas,and many others at IQVIA are gratefully acknowledged. Find Out More If you wish to receive future reports from the IQVIAInstitute for Human Data Science or join our mailing list,visit iqviainstitute.org. In this report, we quantify the impact of these dynamicsand examine the spending and usage of medicines in2023 and the outlook to 2028, globally and for specifictherapy areas and countries. We intend for this report toprovide an evidence-based foundation for meaningful MURRAY AITKENExecutive DirectorIQVIA Institute for Human Data Science Please use this format when referencing content from this report:Source: IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science. Global Use of Medicines: Outlook to 2028, January 2024. Available from www.iqviainstitute.org ©2024 IQVIA and its affiliates. All reproduction rights, quotations, broadcasting, publications reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced ortransmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, withoutexpress written consent of IQVIA and the IQVIA Institute. Global Use of Medicines: Outlook to 2028 Table of Contents Overview2Outlook for the use of medicines and drivers4Therapy area drivers of medicine use10Spending and growth by regions and key countries19Key therapy areas41Notes on sources53Definitions & Methodologies54About the authors56About the Institute57 Overview Significant usage shifts and spending growthacceleration across geographies became apparent in2023 and have contributed to an increase in the outlookfor medicine spending through 2028 of two percentagepoints to 5-8% CAGR, bringing global spending onmedicines at list prices to $2.3Tn. This is at the same timethe COVID-19 pandemic has shifted to endemic and theoutlook for vaccinations and therapeutic spending hasbeen revised downward by nearly $200Bn, driven bylower usage and offset by rising prices. THERAPY AREA DRIVERS OF MEDICINE USE Medicine use for specific therapy areas has beengrowing since 2018, with notably high growth inimmunology, endocrinology, and oncology. These areasof rising usage have been driven more by wider adoptionof older therapies compared to newer medicines. Immunology treatments have seen a steady 12% rise inutilization but the rates of per capita usage have variedconsiderably even within wealthier developed countries.Overall, nearly half of immunology biologic volume isfacing biosimilar competition in developed markets,which has led to an incremental 5% in usage as morepatients use treatments as costs decline. Global health systems have demonstrated remarkableresilience in the face of the pandemic, global inflation,and regional conflicts, and have moved forward to adoptnovel therapies and increase usage overall. Overall,global use and spending on medicines is exceedingpre-pandemic growth rates and is expected to continuesignificantly above those trends through 2028. GLP-1 agonist medicines have been approved for bothdiabetes and obesity indications and have seen rapiduptake since 2021, coinciding with U.S. obesity approvals. Another area of notable medicine use shifts has been theuse of antibacterials, w