长期预算展望

Projections at a Glance This report presents the Congressional Budget Office’s projections of what the federalbudget and the economy would look like over the next 30 years if current laws gen-erally remained unchanged. Those long-term projections are based on the agency’sJanuary 2025 demographic projections (which reflect information, laws, and policies asof November 15, 2024), economic projections (which reflect laws, policies, and economicdevelopments as of December 4, 2024), and 10-year budget projections (which includethe effects of legislation enacted as of January 6, 2025). The projections do not reflect theeffects of administrative actions taken or judicial decisions made after those respectivedates, including actions and decisions affecting immigration, tariffs, and other policy areas. Changes in CBO’sBudget ProjectionsSince March 2024 Federal debt held by the publicin 2054 is now projected tobe 12 percent of GDP lessthan it was projected to bein last year’s report, and thedeficit is now projected to be1.3 percent of GDP less. Lowerspending, particularly for netinterest costs and Medicare,and higher revenues in thecurrent projections contributeto the lower projected debt andsmaller projected deficits. The Federal BudgetDebt held by the public, boosted by large deficits, reaches its highest level ever in 2029 (measured as a percentage of gross domestic product, or GDP) and then continuesto grow, reaching 156 percent of GDP in 2055. It remains on track to increase thereafter.Mounting debt would slow economic growth, push up interest payments to foreign hold-ers of U.S. debt, and pose significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook; it could alsocause lawmakers to feel constrained in their policy choices. The deficitremains large by historical standards over the next 30 years, reaching 7.3 per-cent of GDP in 2055. That amount results from rising interest costs and sustained primarydeficits, which exclude net outlays for interest and average 0.3percent of GDP more overthe next 30 years than they did over the past 50 years. Outlays, which are already high by historical standards, rise over the 2025–2055 period,reaching 26.6 percent of GDP in 2055. Rising interest costs; spending for the major healthcare programs, particularly Medicare; and spending for Social Security, especially over thenext decade, drive that growth. Changes in CBO’sEconomic ProjectionsSince March 2024 Revenuesincrease over the next few years, largely because certain provisions of the2017 tax act are scheduled to expire. Thereafter, they generally rise, reaching 19.3 percentof GDP in 2055, as growth in real income—that is, income adjusted to remove the effectsof changes in prices—boosts receipts from the individual income tax. The economy is now expectedto grow more slowly, onaverage, over the next 30 yearsthan CBO projected last year.That decrease stems mainlyfrom slower growth of privateinvestment and consumerspending over the next decadeand slower growth of the laborforce over the last decadeof the projection period. Theinterest rate on 10-year Treasurynotes is also lower, on average,in the current projections. The U.S. EconomyPopulation growth,which has a significant effect on the economy, is slower over the next 30 years than it was over the past 30 years. Without immigration, the U.S. populationwould begin to shrink in 2033. Economic growthis slower over the next three decades than it was over the past threedecades. The slowdown in the growth of output results from slower growth in the size andproductivity of the labor force; the latter stems partly from increased federal borrowing. Inflationslows through 2027 to a rate that is consistent with the Federal Reserve’s long-term goal of 2 percent and then remains at rates that are consistent with that goal from2027 to 2055. The interest rate on 10-year Treasury notesstays close over the next three decadesto what it was, on average, over the past 30 years, reflecting upward pressure fromincreases in federal borrowing and downward pressure from slowdowns in the growth ofthe labor force. www.cbo.gov/publication/61187 By the Numbers Contents Executive Summary Chapter 1: Debt and Deficits Overview9Debt and Deficits Through 20559Consequences of Large and Growing Federal Debt11Uncertainty of CBO’s Long-Term Projections14 Chapter 2: Spending and Revenues17 Overview17Spending17Revenues26 Chapter 3: Long-Term Demographic and Economic Projections29 Overview29Demographic Projections29Economic Projections30 Appendix A: Policy Specifications, Modeling, and Methods39 Appendix B: Changes in CBO’s Long-Term Economic Projections Since March 202443 Appendix C: CBO’s Projections of Additional Economic Factors Appendix D: Changes in CBO’s Long-Term Budget Projections Since March 202455 List of Tables and Figures63 About This Document64 Boxes 2-1.Medicare Trust Funds222-2.Social Security Trust Funds24 Notes About This Report The Congressional Budget Office’s long-te