2024年Q4全球油气并购展望

Industry Insights Global Oil and Gas M&A Outlook Q42024 Executive Summary Table of Contents In this edition of our Global Oil and Gas M&A Outlook, weexamine and evaluate current trends for commodities prices,leadingsector indicators,valuation developments,M&Adeals performed during the quarter and developments infeatured specialty subsectors. Global DataEconomic EnvironmentFX Rates of Key Currency Pairs Our top insights for this edition follow: Duringthe last quarter of the year,there was anoticeabledecline in M&A activity.The number ofannounced deals dropped by 72, and their disclosedvalue decreased by USD 28.05 bn, resulting in a total of150 announced deals with a disclosed value of USD46.81 bn. Market Review Market StatisticsLeading Sector IndicatorsSubsector FocusCommodity Prices The decline in M&A activity is attributed to a complexinterplayof events.Major public companies areconsolidating within basins, resulting in fewer attractivetargets.Simultaneously,the Trump administration'spolicies may have mixed effects on the U.S. energysector. While pro-energy policies are likely to boostlarge-scale megadeals, the potential implementation oftariffs in the oil and gas sector could negatively impactU.S. refiners and Canadian producers. M&A TransactionsHotspots for Oil and Gas Deal ActivityMegadeals Announced12 Trading StatisticsCommodity PricesCompany Trading Statistics One of the sectors expected to benefit greatly from theU.S. energy policy is the LNG market, whose globalexports reached 107.6 MMt in Q4 2024. U.S. PresidentDonald Trump has already lifted the moratorium onexport permits for new LNG projects and has expresseda commitment to accelerate permitting processes, in linewith his pledge to increase U.S. oil and gas production. Stay Ahead with Kroll Economic Environment Key Considerations After implementing two interest rate cuts in Q42024, lowering rates from 5% to 4.5%, the Fedhas indicated a pause in further rate cuts. Thisdecision is supported by the combination of astrong job market and persistent inflation levels. In Q4 2024, the U.S. labor market ended theyear with job growth surpassing expectationsand robust GDP growth. However, the pace ofinflation reduction has slowed, with Decembershowing a YoY increase of 2.9%. IntheEurozone,inflationisgraduallyapproachingthe 2%target,but economicgrowth remains weak. This could prompt theECB to continue lowering interest rates at thebeginning of 2025, following two 0.25% cuts inQ4 2024, which reduced rates from 3.50% to3.00%. The economic robustness of the U.S. contrastswith the stagnation observed in the Eurozone, asreflected in their respective market indexes’ QoQevolution. The S&P 500, S&P Oil & Gas E&P andDow JonesIndustrial Average have increasedby 2.07%, 0.79% and 0.51%, respectively, whilethe MSCI Europe has decreased by 10.01%.Additionally,otherglobalindexeshaveexperienced declines, with the MSCI China andMSCI Emerging Markets diminishing by 8.81%and 7.82%, respectively. Economic Environment FX Rates of Key Currency Pairs Other Relevant FX Pairs in the Global Oil and Gas Market Key Considerations In the short term, the election of President Trump and the subsequent implementation of his policies are poised to significantly influence the trajectory ofthe U.S. dollar. Key policies expected to impact the market include the implementation of tariffs and a more accommodative fiscal stance.This occurs in the context of the Fed’s signaling a pause in interest rate reductions, with the possibility of future rate increases due to the robustperformance of the U.S. economy and inflation levels that have not yet met policymakers’ targets. These factors collectively imply a strong U.S. dollardynamic during the first half of 2025. Market Statistics Key Considerations Q4 2024 Top Countries by LNG Exports (MMt) By the end of the year, LNG activity increased by5.96% QoQ, or 6.0 MMt, reaching a total of107.6 MMt as the winter season fully set in. The U.S., Qatar, and Australia remained the topthree exporters, contributing to 60% of globalexports with a combined total of 64.5 MMt. Most of the QoQ export growth was driven bytheU.S.,Malaysia,and Qatar.The U.S.registered a 2.3 MMt increase in exports,a10.3% rise. Malaysia's exports grew by 2.2 MMt,a significant 37.7% increase. Australia added 0.8MMt, a 4.1% rise. TheQoQ increase in LNG activity does notalleviate the supply pressures that continue tochallenge the LNG market, which has yet to addnew significant liquefaction capacity. President Trump has lifted the moratorium onexport permits for new LNG projects that wasestablished by former President Joe Biden inearly 2024. The new administration policies areexpected to bolster the U.S.'s leading role in theLNG market, with the potential to double itsexport capacity by 2028. Europe is expected to be the primary market forthese exports, as shipments from the Gulf Coastare more competitive in Europe compared to theAsianmarket,