人口老龄化对香港特别行政区——香港特别行政区的财政影响

The Fiscal Implications ofPopulation Aging forHong Kong SAR Henry Hoyle SIP/2025/049 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on January 13, 2025. This paper isalso published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/16. 2025MAY IMF Selected Issues PaperAsia and Pacific Department The Fiscal Implications of Population Aging for Hong Kong SARPrepared by Henry Hoyle Authorized for distribution by Thomas HelblingMay2025 IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it wascompleted on January 13, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/16. ABSTRACT:Hong Kong SAR’s significant demographic pressures will create fiscal challenges for theauthorities. Fiscal expenditure pressures from population aging have already been rising rapidly for over adecade and are expected to increase significantly in coming years, even without factoring in the cost of neededimprovements to the social security system. An aging population is also going to adversely affect theeconomy’s potential output growth and fiscal revenue, with the effect larger in a scenario where theworking age population shrinks. Revenue-boosting tax reforms and other fiscal measures will beneeded to provide a stable funding base for Hong Kong SAR’s high-quality development into themedium term. RECOMMENDED CITATION:Hoyle, Henry. The Fiscal Implications of Population Aging for Hong Kong SARSIP/2025/049. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund. The Fiscal Implications ofPopulation Aging forHong Kong SAR Hong Kong SAR Prepared by Henry Hoyle ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution