2024年回顾与2025年展望

2024/2025 Conditions, Macroeconomic Factors, and Key Trends Shaping thePolish Commercial Real Estate Market. Analysis of MarketFuture. Antghfrank.com.pl/en/research Introduction The Polish real estate market remains robust, as evidenced by stable occupier demand and a dynamic recovery in the investmentmarket, with strong market fundamentals and optimistic macroeconomic forecasts, the upward trend is expected to continuethrough 2025. In 2024, Poland's economy demonstrated notable growth, with real GDP increasing from 0.2% in 2023 to approximately 3%,posltioning the country among the fastest-growing economies within the European Unlon, Projectlons for 2o25 indicate a GDPgrowth rate of 3.6%, primarily driven by private consumption, which is bolstered by rising wages and record-low unemployment,the lowest in the EU. Occupier demand remains stable, driven by favorable macroeconomic factors such as strong GDP growth, a robust labor market,the expansion of e-commerce, increasing retail sales, steady industrial production, and enduring trends like nearshoring andBusiness Process Offshoring. In the office sector, leased space saw a modest 3% decline compared to the previous year, while the warehouse sector grew by 4%locations have slightly increased and are expeected to remain stable in the coming year.Developer activity remains subdued, which should help better balance supply and demand in 202s. Consequently, rents in prime This trend of reduced development activity does not extend to the Build-to-Rent (BTR) sector, where a significant housingshortage, coupled with limited purchasing power, is driving strong demand for rental properties and stimulating constructionactivity. Poland's investment market is experiencing a strong recovery. In 2024, total investment volume surpassed EUR 5 billion, morethan double the previous year, and slightly below the five-year average of EUR 5.3 billion, Liquidity increased as well, with over130 transactions completed ln 2024 = a nearly 60% rise from the previous year, Looking ahead, we expect continued investoractivity in 2o25, driven by stable rental market performance, favorable macroeconomic indicators, and the ongoing monetaryeasing policies of central banks Table of contents Page 12WAREHOUSEMARKET Page 3INTRODUCTION Page 16BTRMARKET Page 4OFFICEMARKET Page8RETAILMARKET ThePolish real estate market remains robust, asevidenced by stable occupierdemand anda dynamicrecoveryintheinvestmentmarket.With strongmarketfundamentals and optimisticmacroeconomicforecasts,theupwardtrendis expectedto continuethrough 2025. Dorota Lachowska,Head of Research Office market The demand for office space remains stable. In 2024, the totaltake-up reached 1.5 million sq m, representing a 6% increaseover the 5-vear average, Given the positive macroeconomicenvironment and other contributing factors, we expect thisupward trend to continue into 2025. The pace of new office space additions continues to declinewith approximately 228,000 sq m delivered in 2024, markingthe lowest amount since 2005, Currently, only 468,000 sq m areunder construction, which is 12% le5s than in Q4 2023 At the end of 2024, the vacancy rate in Poland sto0d at 14.3%with slight increases observed in most cities over the year,except for Krakow, Tricity, Poznari, and Lublin. Consideringdecrease in 2025. Asking rents have experienced slight increases in most citiesEUR 9 to 18/sq m/month in regional cities, However, theseincreases primarily affect the upper rental rates and are stronglyinfluenced by the new buildings entering the market. Market conditions These buildings benefit from preferentialquickly, and exhibit higher liquidity.Consequently, the number of officebuildings complying with sustainableESG criteria continues to rise steadily. Bytheendof2024.57%ofthetotalottlcestock in Poland held a green certification,marking a 2 percentage point increasecomparedTothepreviousyear.Warsawhas the highest concentration of thesecertifiedbulldlngs,with3o%otalcertified office space located there, Theremaining27%is distributedacrosskey At the end or 2024, the total office stockin Poland reached approximately 13,1mlonsgm.withnearlvhaiflocatednWarsawand52%situatedintheeightLargest regional cities. In addition toWarsaw, the leading markets are Krakowand wroclaw, boasting oftice stocks ot1.83 million sq m and 1.38 million 5q m,respectively. delivered to the market will continueto decline, projected to reach a recordlow of152,000 q m in 2026, followingapproximately 278,000 sq m in 2025. Presently,l4%oftheofficespaceunderconstruction consists of refurbishments,a trend particularly evident in Warsaw,the most mature and simultaneously theoldest office market in the country. Developer activity remains limited, andnewsupplyhasbeendecreasingsince2022. Many developers are postponingdecisions regarding the initiation of newprojects due to the significant availabilityot otricespaceandtheongoinghighfinancing and construction costs. Th