葡萄牙电力公司（EDP.LS）：葡萄牙电力公司（EDP PL）：预计2025年第一季度表现强劲

EquitiesElectric Utilities Hold:Q1 2025expected to be strong Portugal ◆Good start to 2025 withQ1 2025results expected to growYoYon strong hydro and underlying renewables growth MAINTAIN HOLD TARGET PRICE(EUR)PREVIOUS TARGET(EUR)3.603.60 ◆We expectan updated strategythat trims renewables growthand improvements in the balance sheetin H2 2025 ◆Maintain Hold with unchanged TP of EUR3.60 Q1 2025 expectations:We expect Q1 2025 EBITDA of EUR1,350m and net incomeofEUR407m,implying c1% yoy growth attheEBITDA level and c15% atthenetincome level. The growth attheEBITDA level is mainly driven byexpectations ofstrong hydro resources at attractive prices,as well as underlyinggrowth inrenewables,with higher generation outputoffsetting zero capital gains in Q1 2025.We believe EDP is off to a strong start in earningsin 2025, with our Q1 2025estimates representing 28-32% of our FY 2025estimates, which are ahead ofcompany EBITDA guidance. With asset rotation and tax equity proceeds gearedtowards H2 2025, we expect improvements in the balance sheet inH22025. WebelieveEDP’snew strategy(expected in H2 2025)might shiftto networks,with a more selective approach to renewables.EDP’s integrated business profileof hydro, market & supply and electricity networks complementsthe renewablesbusiness.We expect network investments to accelerate in Brazil and Iberia withrisingWACCs,andwesee anotherstrong hydro year in 2025.However,EDPR cutrenewablesdevelopment ambitions for 2025/26 and offeredlittlevisibility beyond 2026,acknowledging US policy risk, balance sheet constraints as well as market restrictionssuch as permitting and grid connections. We forecast flat EBITDA and net income in thenext five years. Estimate changes:Weincreaseour2025 EBITDA and net incomeestimatesby 2%and 7%,respectively,on strong hydroresources. We lower 2027/28 estimatesslightly,mainly driven by lower achieved prices. Meike Becker*Head of European Utilities &RenewablesHSBC Bank plcmeike.becker@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 6441 Maintain Hold with unchanged TP of EUR3.60, implying c8% upside:We valueEDP using a combination of SOTP (75% weight) and a dividend yield approach(25%weight) to derive ourunchangedTP of EUR3.60.Werate the stock Holdas weexpectflat earnings andlimitedvisibility on renewables growth beyond 2026. Charles Swabey*Analyst, European Utilities & RenewablesHSBC Bank plccharles.swabey@hsbc.com+44 20 3268 3954 Chandrahasan S*AssociateBangalore For details on EDP’s renewables business, pleaseseeEDP Renovaveis–Hold:Expect solid Q1 2025, 28 April 2025. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations HSBC Global Research Podcasts| Listen to our insightsFind out more Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation:Energias de Portugal We assume flat EPS from 2026e, butgrowing dividend andincreasing payouts Source: Company data, HSBC estimates Source: Company data, Bloombergconsensus estimates, HSBC estimates For moredetails EDP:Hold: Flat earnings outlook; cut to renewables(12 Mar 2025) European Renewables:Orsted, EDP/R and Acciona Energia updates(18 Dec 2024) European Utilities & Renewables:2025 outlook: Visibility wins(10 Dec 2024) EDP:Buy: Shifting to grids?(12 Nov 2024) Valuation Risks to our view To valueEnergias de Portugal (EDP), we use a SOTP (75%weight) and dividend yield approach (25%weight) to arrive atour target price of EUR3.60 (unchanged). Downside risks:(i) Delays in the execution of thebusiness plan and renewables growth ambitions; and(ii) adverse market, regulation or competitive dynamicsthat limit margins and growthUpside risks: (i)Improvement in power prices andload factor, (ii) Better than expected capacity growthand returns in renewables and (iii) Positive news flowsfrom networks regulation in Iberia. To determine the target yield, we add a company-specific riskpremiumderived from segment and market risk of 2.5%(unchanged) to a long-term risk-free rate of 3.75% resulting in atarget yield of 6.25% (unchanged).Our dividend yield valuationis EUR3.2(upfrom EUR3.1previously, driven byanincreasein 2025eDPS). Sector risks:There are risks that are common to theutility sector, including a change in the regulatory andpolitical environment; changing macroeconomicparameters, such as interest rates, price risk,exchange rate risk; and stranded asset risk Our SOTP approach usesaDCF valuation of the units using arisk-free rate of 3.75% (unchanged) and country-specific equityrisk premiums: (1) we value regulated network assetsusing aDCF methodology with a premium to RAB approach as areference; (2) we value onshore renewables using a combinationof DCF for existing assets and an IRR methodology with aspread over WACC of c250bp (unchanged) for new business;(3) we value offshore wind assets with IRR models andNPV/capex multiples; (4) we value retail using a DCFmethodology with CoE and country-sp