从金发姑娘到金发很多

From Goldilocks to Gold-i-Lots Scores on the Doors: gold 25.3%, government bonds 5.8%, IG 3.9%, HY 1.7%, cash1.3%, commodities -1.3%, stocks -5.2%, US dollar -8.4%, oil -9.8%, crypto -34.0% YTD. 17 April 2025 Investment StrategyGlobal The Price is Right:“If all you ever did was buy high-quality stocks on the 200-weekmoving average, you would beat the S&P 500 by a large margin over time”–CharlieMunger…S&P 500 200-week MA currently 4685, 50-week MA is 5685…that’s the range. Tale of the Tape: Fed cut 50bps in Sept when stock market at record high, Atlanta Fedwas forecasting +3% US GDP growth; Fed now determined not to cut rates after 20%market plunge, Atlanta Fed forecasting -3% GDP growth; market probabilities for Fedcut…10% at May 7thFOMC, 70% at June 18thFOMC, 100% at July 30thFOMC. The Biggest Picture: 2020s decade of“big change,”end of“Wall St”bullish“globalization”; conservative 25/25/25/25 cash/bonds/gold/stocks“permanent portfolio”up 4.7% YTD vs -5.4% for traditional 60/40 portfolio…decade-to-date 60/40 annualizing4.6% vs 3.8% for 25/25/25/25…60/40 long-run outperformance at 14-year low (Chart 2). Michael HartnettInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 1508michael.hartnett@bofa.com Elyas Galou>>Investment StrategistBofASE (France)+33 1 8770 0087elyas.galou@bofa.com Anya ShelekhinInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 3753anya.shelekhin@bofa.com Myung-Jee JungInvestment StrategistBofAS+1 646 855 0389myung-jee.jung@bofa.com More on page 2… Source:BofA Global Investment Strategy The indicatoridentified above as the BofA Bull & Bear Indicator isintended to be an indicative metric only and may not beused for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, orotherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofAGlobal Research. This indicator was not created to act asa benchmark.BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 11 to 13. Weekly Flows: $8.0bn into gold (record inflow), $7.9bn into stocks, $0.3bn out ofcrypto, $20.1bn out of bonds, $72.4bn out of cash (biggest since Jan’25). Flows to Know: •Gold: record inflow ($8.0bn–Chart 14);•IG bonds: biggest 2-week outflow since Jun'22 ($11.1bn outflow this week);•Global stocks: $7.9bn inflow this week, and huge $250bn inflow YTD;•European stocks: biggest inflow since May’17 ($6.0bn);•Leveraged equity ETFs: tiny $0.3bn outflow this week after record $14bn inflow lastweek…the“bro bid”for stocks continues (Chart 13);•Foreign flows to US stocks: $2.1bn inflow past 3 weeks…buying has slowed sinceDec'24 (Chart 10), but no outflows; foreigners hold $16.5tn or 18% of US stocks;•Foreign flows to US corporate bonds: $4.6bn outflow past 3 weeks…biggest sellingsince Apr'20 (Chart 11); foreigners own $4.4tn or 27% of US corporate bonds;•Foreign flows to US Treasuries: $1.2bn inflow past 3 weeks…no sustained foreignselling (Chart 12); foreigners own $8.5tn or 33% of US Treasuries. BofA Private Clients:$3.6tn AUM…60.9% stocks, 19.9% bonds, 12.0% cash; privateclient YTD drop in equity allocation from 63% to 60% driven by price (-11%) not sharecount (-1%), i.e. no big selling of stocks; private clients buying utilities, low-vol, anddividend ETFs vs selling bank loan, HY, financials ETFs past week. BofA Bull & Bear Indicator: falls to 4.1 from 4.5 onbearish BofA April Global FMS&outflows from risky assets; catalysts for drop Bull & Bear Indicator to 2.0 "buy signal" incoming weeks…1. outflows of >$100bn from global equities, 2. BofA Global Breadth Ruletriggered if >88% of equity indices below 200dma & 50dma. BofA Global FMS: April survey = 5thmost bearish in past 25 years; price action aroundthe past 4 prior big FMS sentiment lows (measured by growth expectations, cash levels,equity allocation) says“always a rally”but Policy & Profits always determine if a bearmarket rally or shiny new bull market… •Mar 2001: short 19% bear market rally Apr-May 2001–Chart 3;•Oct 2008: short 18% bear market rally Oct-Nov 2008–Chart 4;•Jun 2019: bull market rally of 44% into the COVID bear of Mar 20