高频监测：关税过山车

Tariff rollercoaster 15 April 2025 Stocks rebound following tariff rollercoasterGlobal equities experienced significant volatility last week due to tariff-related announcements but ultimately closed the week with gains (+3.4%). The USA (+5.7%)was the best performing region, while Asia Pac ex-Japan (-4.2%) was weighed down byChina(-7.9%).Among global sectors, Semiconductors (+11.6%) and Software (+6.5%)led the gains, while Energy (-1.6%) fell the most on the back of aweaker oil price.Despite the 90-day pause in reciprocal tariffs, tariff uncertainty continues to cloud theoutlook for equities. Combined with recent peak in the Global Wave cycle indicator, thissuggests investors tilt towards defensive regions, sectors, and styles. Quant StrategyGlobal Nigel Tupper>>Quant StrategistMerrill Lynch (Australia)+61 2 9226 5735nigel.tupper@bofa.com Amar Vashi>>Quant StrategistMerrill Lynch (Australia)amar.vashi@bofa.com Global Earnings Revision Ratio and News Pulse collapsed Sumuhan Shanmugalingam>>Quant StrategistMerrill Lynch (Australia)sumuhan.shanmugalingam@bofa.com Last week, theGlobal Earnings Revision Ratiofell from 0.73 to 0.60 to reach lowest levelin 29 months. The Ratio fell in allmajor regionsand is now lowest in the USA, while theJapan Ratioremains highest. TheGlobal News Pulsesank from 18% to 9% - the lowestlevel since Feb-24–as stock-related news turn less positive. OurGlobal Inflation NewsPulsecontinue to move higher. Unless otherwise noted all links onthe front page of this report refer tosections in this research report. China exporters to the USA suffered the most Since the announcement of tariffs on 2ndApril, exporters to the USA haveunderperformed in most regions. China stocks with revenue exposure to the USA haveunderperformed the most. We highlight aglobal stock screenbased on characteristicswhich may shield stocks from the negative impact of US tariffs. Market PerformanceStyle PerformanceEarnings Revision RatioEarnings Revision Ratioby StyleNewsAlphaWord CloudTactical IndicatorsVolatilityRatesTriple Momentum Chart 1: China to the USA exporters underperformed the most since 2ndAprilStocks in each region with US revenue exposure: Performance vs region MSCI index Trading ideas and investment strategies discussed herein may give rise to significant risk and arenot suitable for all investors. Investors should have experience in relevant markets and the financialresources to absorb any losses arising from applying these ideas or strategies.>> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Refer to important disclosures on page 42 to 43.12817186 Timestamp: 14 April 2025 02:16PM EDT Contents Notice to Readers:3Market Performance4Market Breadth6Style Performance7Earnings Revision Ratio8Quantessential Styles: Earnings Revision Ratio10NewsAlpha11Tactical Indicators13Commodities15Volatility16Fed17Rates18Valuation21Revenue Exposure22Tariff-shelter stocks23Triple Momentum24Global Regions: Triple Momentum Charts29Global Sectors: Triple Momentum Charts32Countries: Triple Momentum Charts40 Notice to Readers: The various screens identified in this report are intended to be indicative metrics onlyand may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure of performance for anyfinancial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by third parties for any otherpurpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research. These screens werenot created to act as a benchmark. The Global News Pulse (and the regional and sectors versions of it) is intended to be anindicative metric only and may not be used for reference purposes or as a measure ofperformance for any financial instrument or contract, or otherwise relied upon by thirdparties for any other purpose, without the prior written consent of BofA Global Research.This News Pulse was not created to act as a benchmark. Market Performance Chart 3: Global Sectors Performance: Last WeekBest performing sector last week was Semiconductors The USA was the best performing region last week BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH MTD: Cons. Staples has performed the best Source :BofA Global Quantitative Strategy, MSCI BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Best performing region this year is Europe Market Breadth Chart 8: ACWI Market Cap vs. Equal weighted index performance -last week/MTD/YTDLast week, ACWI index returned 3.4%, while Equal Weighted index Chart 9: ACWI Market Cap vs. Equal weighted index per