全球高频航运追踪报告

Industry Overview 16 April 2025 Tracking the high frequency shipping dataThis report contains our favorite charts to track shipping & supply chains. Container EquityGlobalShipping shipping faces a sharp demand shock from escalating US/China trade tensions with ourchannel checks suggesting up to a halving of China-to-US container shipments for now.Car carrier rates have seen building pressure in 1Q25 with auto tariffs likely toaccelerate the downturn. Bulk rates are expected to remain YoY lower through 1H25with mixed impacts of trade tensions, while VLCC crude tanker looks better positionedwith flattish demand and rates so far in 2Q25. Nathan Gee, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Singapore)+65 6678 0418nathan.gee@bofa.com Ken HoexterResearch AnalystBofAS+1 646 855 1498ken.hoexter@bofa.com Container: Big disruptions to China to US trade flows Container shipping faces a near term shock from escalating US-China tariffs. Channelchecks suggest up to a halving of China-to-US container volumes due to tariffs, whilechecks suggest no big surge in non-China to US volumes for now with a mild upturn inAsia-Europe volumes with Chinese exports being rediverted. So transpacific spot ratesface downside risks ahead until we get more signs of blank sailings, while Asia-Europerates could be supported by volume diversion. Muneeba Kayani>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 5208muneeba.kayani@bofa.com Hiro Nakakura, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Singapore)hiro.nakakura@bofa.com Tanker: Flattish demand and rates so far in 2Q25 Crude tanker demand has trended at -1% YoY in tonne mile terms in 1H April 2025.VLCC have started 2Q25 slightly higher YoY and forward curves VLCC rates could hold atflattish YoY through 2Q25. Tanker has largely avoided direct impacts from tradetensions for now, but watch volatility ahead with OPEC+ hikes and Iran/Venezuelasanctions possibility helpful but macro uncertainty could weigh. Abbreviations VLCC–Very Large Crude Carrier Bulker: Mixed impact from rising trade tensions Braemar reads show a recovery in dry bulk demand in March 2025 with 1Q25 volumesaveraging +3% YoY higher led by robust panamax and handysize flows. Dry bulk rateshave started 2Q25 down an average -23% YoY and forward curves suggest 2Q25 drybulk rates are likely to average -20-30% YoY lower. The impact of rising US/China tradetensions looks mixed–watch longer less efficient flows but also demand impacts fromhigher prices and possible macro disruptions. Car carrier: Tariff shock to demand and contracting Car carrier demand has grown +7% YoY for 2M25 on easy comps, but watch fordisruptions ahead from US auto tariffs with up to 4.5% of global demand at risk (formore see:US auto tariffs & shipping implications 27 March 2025). Car carrier timecharter rates continue to fall in March (-10% MoM, >-50% YoY) and Höegh achieved netcar carrier rates in March 2025 were also down -5% YoY. Timestamp: 15 April 2025 10:31PM EDT Red Sea disruptions Container shippingAverage freight rates Source:Shanghai Shipping ExchangeBofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Source:Shanghai Shipping ExchangeBofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Spot freight rates Exhibit 15: Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), 2010-2025 SCFI down 47% YoY and down 21% QoQ so far in 2Q25 | 1395 | WoW: 0% MoM: 6% YoY: -21% vs.2019 78% Exhibit 18: SCFI USWC, 2010-25 ($/FEU)| 2202 | MoM: 12% YoY: -31% vs.2019 37% Exhibit 21: SCFI Middle East, 2010-25($/TEU)|1309 | MoM: 34% YoY: -36% vs.2019 78% Exhibit 20: SCFI Mediterranean, 2010-25($/TEU) Exhibit 22: SCFI Singapore, 2010-25($/TEU) |448 | MoM: 0% YoY: 60% vs.2019 209% | 2144 | MoM: -7% YoY: -29% vs.2019 200% World trade trends Trade volume down in Feb except intra Asia trade US high frequency container volumes US weekly imports pick up again in early April US weekly imports up +15% YoY in April US imports by category Furniture imports +19% YoY, 46% above 2019 US consumer reads For more on BAC card spending data and a detailed explanation of the methodology,disclaimers and limitations in connection with such data see our note:BofA on USA Exhibit 37:Card spending was soft in many categories in February,particularly airlinesAggregated monthly BAC card spending per HH by major category Exhibit 36:Total card spending was up 3.9% y/y in the week ending Apr 5likely due to Easter timing change (3/31/24 vs 4/20/25) as well as frontloading due to tariff concernsTotal card, retail ex auto and total card ex gas spending, per HH, based on BAC (%m/m, SA) aggregated card data (y/y %change of the 7-day ma of spending levels) Exhibit 38: Y/y clothing and department store spending growth was up2.8% and 1.9%, respectively in the week ending Apr 5 likely due toEaster timing change and tariff concernsSpending per HH at clothing stores, based on BAC aggregated card data (y/y Exhibit 39: Y/y furniture spending growth was up 3.8% in the weekending Apr 5 likely due to Easter timing change and tariff concernsSpending per HH at home imp