自动驾驶汽车：时间表和未来路线图（英）

Autonomous Vehicles:Timeline and Roadmap Ahead W H I T EP A P E RA P R I L2 0 2 5 Contents Foreword3 Executive summary4 Introduction5 1Assisted, automated and autonomous personal vehicles7 2Robotaxis and roboshuttles11 3Autonomous trucks14 4An overarching industry agenda18 Conclusion21 Contributors22 Endnotes24 Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated andendorsed by the World Economic Forumbut whose results do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the World EconomicForum, nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders. ©2025 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopyingand recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system. Foreword Nikolaus LangManaging Directorand Senior Partner,Boston Consulting Group Jeremy JurgensManaging Director,World Economic Forum The timeline for adopting these innovationshas wide societal implications beyond transportplanning, and addressing these challengesat an early stage is essential to a successfulrollout. For example, many workers may struggleto adapt to changing job requirements. An accuratetimeline can help decision-makers better prepareworkforce reskilling programmes. Data privacy andcybersecurity must also be prioritized; autonomousvehicles gather vast amounts of real-time and,to some extent, sensitive data, about what ishappening in the vehicle and its surroundings.Equitable access to vehicle automation technologyis critical, too: AV development must enable moreholistic and inclusive mobility systems insteadof exacerbating existing transport inequalities. Over thousands of years transport has alwaysconnected people and expanded their accessto opportunities, consistently growing economiesand advancing societies. Within that ongoingevolution, autonomous vehicles (AVs) representone of transport’s most anticipated developments,offering the potential to improve road safety, enhancelogistics and enable new mobility services. There are,however, significant technological, regulatory andoperational challenges to realizing those benefits.AVs must also be carefully integrated into existingtransport ecosystems as mixed traffic conditionswill create complexities for years to come. It is crucial that the sector’s stakeholders canbase informed decisions on realistic expectations,yet predictions about the deployment timeline forautonomous vehicles have tended to be overlyoptimistic. While vehicle automation technology hasadvanced considerably, its large-scale integrationwill take longer than most have anticipated. Thiswhite paper aims to provide a more groundedperspective on the adoption timeline, addressingthree key use cases of vehicle autonomy between2025 and 2035: personal vehicles, robotaxis andautonomous trucks. It strives to answer some ofthe key questions of policymakers, business leadersand the public about these evolving technologies. Widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles willremain slow, but the decisions made today willshape how this technology integrates into societytomorrow. Governments, industry leaders and civilsociety need to collaborate to ensure that societalneeds are met and that autonomous vehiclescontribute to a more efficient, sustainable andinclusive mobility landscape. Executive summary Autonomous vehicles: Scaling for impactwhile addressing remaining challenges. Early deployments of autonomous vehicles arealready on the roads. However, it is becomingapparent that large-scale rollout will be slower thanonce anticipated. While previous and even somecurrent forecasts state that autonomous vehicleswill be widely adopted during the 2020s, theanalyses of this white paper suggest mainstreamdeployment will be slower than that given the manychallenges and inherent technological, regulatoryand economic complexities. small, controlled pilots and focus on integratingroboshuttles with public transport systemsinstead. Large-scale robotaxi (and roboshuttle)deployments will lead to modal shifts, affectingnot only taxi and traditional ride-hailing but alsopersonal car and public transport use. –Autonomous trucking presents a strong casefor autonomy. Compared to traditional trucking,it introduces a new value proposition that goesbeyond advantages in efficiency and total costof ownership. Several companies have startedcommercial operations, and 2025 is expectedto be an important year for autonomous truckingdeployments. Among the different use-cases,hub-to-hub trucking has the most promise forautomation. The United States is expected tolead adoption for this use case: it is projectedthat autonomous trucks will account for up to30% of new truck sales in the US by 2035. InEurope, international borders pose challengesfor long-h