STAG工业（STAG）：2025年第一季度速评 - STAG每股核心运营资金超预期1美分，维持全年指引

1Q25 Quick Take - STAG Beats by 1c, MaintainsFull-Year Guidance STAG beat on 1Q25 FFO/sh but maintained guidance. Cash SS NOI wasa bit light at +3.4%, but cash leasing spreads of +27.3% accelerated from4Q24 (+19.4%). We expect leasing spreads will continue to trend positivelyvs coastal peers over the next few years driven by demand related toonshoring of manufacturing and supply chain reconfiguration (see WarehouseRent Tracker). We expect a neutral reaction tomorrow given the unchangedguidance. 1Q25 Core FFO/sh Beat:STAG reported Core FFO/sh of $0.61, above JEF/Street estimates of$0.60. FY25 Core FFO/sh Guidance Maintained:STAG kept its FY25 Core FFO/sh guidance at $2.46to $2.50. The midpoint of $2.48 is 1c below the JEF/Street estimate of $2.49. Key guidancecomponents include: •SS cash NOI of +3.5 to +4.0%;•Acquisition volume of $350M to $650M;•Disposition volume of $100M to $200M;•Stabilized cap rate assumption on acquisitions of 6.25% to 6.75%;•G&A guidance of $52M to $54M. What We Liked: •STAG's acquisition pipeline stood at $3.8B, up from last update of $3.7B as of April 28th, 2025.•Acquired 3 buildings for $43.3M at a cash/GAAP cap rate of 6.8%/7.0%. STAG also disposedof 1 building (337k sq ft) for $67M at a cash cap rate of 4.9%.•Cash leasing spreads on new and renewal leases of +27.3% (+42.1% GAAP) were higher thanQ4 spreads of +19.4%/+34.9% and just below the prior 4-qtr avg of +27.8% (+41.2% GAAP).For 2025, STAG has completed 78.5% of expected 2025 new and renewal leasing at a cashrent change of +25.1%.•Same-store portfolio occupancy at quarter-end was 97.4%, up 20 bps QoQ from 97.2%. Thisis down -80 bps YoY from 98.2%. For the total portfolio, occupancy dropped -60 bps QoQ to95.9%.•Net debt to annualized Run Rate Adjusted EBITDAre of 5.2x was unchanged from 4Q24. Source: Company Reports, Jefferies What We Didn't Like: •Cash SS NOI growth came in at +3.4%, which is lower than both +4.4% in Q4 and the prior 4-qtr avg of +5.5%.•Subsequent to quarter-end, STAG raised $550M of fixed rate senior unsecured notes in aprivate placement offering with a wtd avg interest rate of 5.65%. As of the end of 1Q25, STAG'swtd avg interest rate was 4.13%. Jonathan Petersen * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-1705 | jpetersen@jefferies.com Ahmed Mehri * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8456 | amehri@jefferies.com Call: Tomorrow @ 10 AM ET. Dial (877) 407-4018 (no passcode). Matthew Roberts * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8524 | mroberts1@jefferies.com Company Description STAG Industrial STAG Industrial is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition and operation of single-tenant industrial properties throughout the UnitedStates. Company Valuation/Risks STAG Industrial Our price target is DDM-derived. Key risks to our price target include 1) a more challenging acquisition environment and 2) lower-than-expectedretention levels. Analyst Certification: I, Jonathan Petersen, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report. I, Ahmed Mehri, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report. I, Matthew Roberts, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report. As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receivescompensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as appropriate, butvarious regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority of reports are publishedat irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement. Investment Recommendation Record (Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR) Recommendation PublishedApril 29, 2025 , 20:52 ET.Recommendation DistributedApril 29, 2025 , 20:52 ET. Company Specific Disclosures Jefferies Financial Group Inc., its affiliates or subsidiaries is acting as a manager or co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities for STAGIndustrial, Inc. or one of its affiliates. Within the past twelve months, STAG Industrial, Inc. has been a client of Jefferies Fin