澳大利亚工业评论2025年第一季度

Record development completions during 2024 has normalisedvacancy and slowed the pace of rental growth. knightfrank.com.au/research Jennelle WilsonPARTNER, RESEARCH & CONSULTING Sqm of new supply in 2025 Vacancy grew again in Q4 Investment volumeCY 2024 Vacancy continued to increase acrossthe East Coast, tripling during 2024 to2.2m square metres. This is 33% abovethe 10-year average but still onlyrepresents a 3% combined vacancy rate. After what is likely to be a peak 2.6million squaremetresof new stockdelivered in 2024, completions for 2025are forecast to be slightly lower withnew starts being pushed out. Investment in 2024 was 23% above 2023levels as activity picked up over thesecond half of the year,indicatinginvestors long term confidence inindustrial assets. Y/Y growth in Perth landvalues 1-5ha Prime yields Sydney &Melbourne Y/Y prime rental growth inAdelaide Adelaide had the highest annual primerental growth and equal highest Q4growth of 1.6% (with Sydney). This hastaken average prime rents to $142/sqm. Annual growth of 20% across Perthland1-5haleads the market withBrisbane and Adelaide close behindwith 17% annual uplift.Sydney andMelbourne land values have plateaued. Investor demand and easing monetarypolicy has brought stability to yields,the exceptions were slight tightening inBrisbane (-2bps) and Adelaide (-3bps). New supply construction to pull back in 2025, reacting to softer take-up and stagnating rentsin some sub-markets Eastern Seaboard industrial vacancy increased by 4.0% inQ4 and now sits 33% above the 10-year average. Thelargest uplift was in Melbourne (+95,624sqm) with afurther jump in secondary vacancy. Sydney vacancyincreased by 4.3% in Q4 (21,995sqm) due to acceleratedspeculative starts. Brisbane vacancy fell by 4.7%, led bygreater take-up in existing stock. Vacancy is nowconsidered to be back in line with long term levels afterthe extreme lows of 2022-2024. Speculative vacancy onthe East Coast reached new highs to be 858,028sqm withhigh construction starts during 2024 in all three cities.Speculative space currently accounts for 38% of totalavailable space on the Eastern Seaboard. Leasing take-up softened over the course of 2024 with theQ4 East Coast total of 552,474sqm the lowest since Q3-20.Take-up was softer in each city during Q4 with Sydneydown 24% q/q, Melbourne down 20% q/q and Brisbanedown 12% q/q.The annual total for 2024 at 2.6 millionsquare meters was 19.4% lower than the year before.Despite this decrease, this is still8% above the 10-yearaverage but a retreat from the space scramble of 2022-2023. Pre-commitment activity slowed over 2024 asproject feasibility remained difficult, representing only16% of total 2024 take-up, compared to 27% in 2023. Development completions reached a record 2.6 millionsquare metres during 2024 across the East Coast, with the2025 total forecast to be a lower 2.3 million, withconstruction starts being pushed out, particularly inMelbourne. Rents increased modestly during Q4 in all Australianprime industrial markets ranging from 0.7%-1.6% q/q.Adelaide with +12% y/y had the highest prime growth for2024. In the East Coast cities rental growth was driven byonly one or two precincts–most notably South Sydney,East Melbourne and TradeCoast/North Brisbane–withrents flat in the others. Secondary rental growth washighest in Adelaide (13.8% y/y) and Perth (10.6% y/y) withmore modest growth in other markets. Incentives havecontinued to rise, particularly in the precincts withsubstantial new supply, with Western Sydney nowaveraging 16.9%, West Melbourne averaging 19.5% andBrisbane South sitting at 13.5%. Uptick in investment volumes highlights improved economic outlook and investorconfidence Inflationary pressures have eased globally and inAustralia. In Australia, headline CPI measured 2.4% andtrimmed mean inflation fell to 3.2% in Q4 2024. Thedownward trend is a sign that the RBA’s strategy totolerate a slower path back to target in order to preservegains in the labour market has paid off, with inflationseemingly returning to the target band of 2-3% ahead ofschedule. Given the improved inflationary data, the RBArecently softened its monetary policy stance with a 25bpsrate cut, the first rate cut since 2020 with the cash ratenow down to 4.1%. Further rate cuts in 2025 are forecastgiven the improved outlook for inflation and the need torestore a faster rate of economic growth. Investment activity picked up over the second half of2024, displaying investors long term confidence inindustrial assets. Sales volumes in Q3 and Q4 totalled $2.8and 3.1 billion respectively, taking investment volumes for2024 to over $10.6 billion, a 23% increase on 2023. Notabletransactions over the period included Aware Super andBarings acquiring theAustrackBusiness Park inMelbourne for $600 million. Additionally, in Sydney,Goodman has expanded its holdings in South Sydney,acquiring 118-124 Bourke Road Alexandira for $76 million.In Western Sydney, Irongate purchased