澳大利亚零售评论2025年9月

Rebounding household spending and tightening supply havestrengthened fundamentals and boosted investment activity, settingthe retail sector on a path for sustained growth. Strong population growth and rising real incomes–combined withlimited new supply–have positioned retail as one of the strongestperforming sectors, drawing increased capital from investors seekingto capitalise on the rebound. ALISTAIR READSENIOR ECONOMIST, RESEARCH & CONSULTING Average MAT growth Real household disposableincome growth Household spendinggrowth Across 100 shopping centres held bylisted companies/REITs, movingannual turnover (MAT) grew by anaverage of 3.0% in CY24/FY25. Real household disposable incomegrew by 4.2% over the year to Q2 2025,the strongest growth since Q1 2021. The value of household spending roseby 5.1% year-on-year in July 2025. Average retailer EBITmargin Investment volumes H1-25 Change in retail yields Liquidity has returned to the retailsector with transaction volumes risingto $6.0 billion in H1 2025, a 17%increase from H1 2024. Retail yields declined by 4bps to 5.71%in Q2 as falling interest rates resultedin improved investor confidence EBIT margins across a selection ofmajor retailers remained relativelysteady at 8.3%. Recent market activity indicates that retail assetspriced below $300 million continue to attract stronginvestor demand. With limited scope for new development,reconfiguring surrendered space offers a cost-effective alternative. Recent capital raises have delivered strong outcomes,signalling a continued expansion in liquidity amongthe retail sector in the near-future and thecontinuation of strong competition for retail assets. Increased competitiveness in the supermarket anddiscount department store landscape has seen a shiftin negotiating power towards landlords when leaseexpiries are imminent. Population growth and rising real incomes support spending growth In nominal terms, retail sales were up by5.1% over the yearto Julysignalling acontinuation of the turnaround in retailsales seen in late 2024. In the FY25 reporting season, severallarge retailers mentioned that while trading conditionsremain tough, there are green shoots in the consumerenvironment and outlook for retail consumption, supportedby household income growth, falling interest rates anddisinflation. Many retailers pointed to a strong pick up insales growth in the first few weeks of FY26 as an indicationthat improving consumer sentiment and incomes werebeginning to translate into retail sales growth. Retailorientated spending growth has been strong for food (6.3%y/y), but subdued for household goods (3.9%) and clothing(2.2%) Looking ahead, the outlook for retail salesis positivewithstrong population growth and easing pressures onhousehold budgets expected to drive higher per capitaconsumption.This will be particularly beneficial fordiscretionary retail spending which has been more impactedby cost-of-living pressures. The expected increase in retail spending in 2025 is expectedto be driven by younger consumers. The increased cost-of-living over recent years had a more acute impact on youngerconsumers due to increased exposure to higher interest ratesand rent prices. As a result, younger consumers had thelargest decrease in spending in 2023 and 2024. Commonwealth Bank spending data shows that annualgrowth in essential and discretionary spending has been thelargest among younger consumers in FY25, and this is likelyto continue as household balance sheets improve. “we have seen a bit of a pickup, a modest pickup.Sowe are morepositive about the consumer outlook than we were 6 months ago.There'sdefinitely someimprovement there, but it's still early days.”–Rob Scott, Managing Director Wesfarmers “The early trading results for FY26 are encouraging”–Chris Mentis, CFO Harvey Norman “from our customer surveys and some of the data we're seeing now,we'redefinitely seeingsome green shoots in terms of customersentiment. So that really has come from the interest rate cut and peoplestarting to feel a bit more optimistic about household budgets goingforward.”–LeahWeckert, CEO Coles Income growth remains resilient Despite the slower than expected rebound in householdconsumption, retail owners have reported strong growth inleasing spreads in FY25. In 2021 and 2022 lease spreads hadbifurcated with stronger performance in neighbourhoodcentres dominated by non-discretionary tenants, but nowgrowth has returned across all centre types. All operators ofmajor shopping centres have seen leasing spreads return togrowth above 2% in FY25.Operators ofneighbourhoodassets–such as HomeCo and Charter Hall’s Retail REIT(whose strategyfocuses on convenience retail)–thathave agreater focus on non-discretionary spending have seen thestrongest growth in re-leasingspreads. A lack of new retailsupply and strong population growth is expected to drivestrong future rental growth and releasing spreads. Moving annual turnover (MAT) growth has also