聚烯烃周报：埃克森美孚投产，新装置持续放量

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 惠州埃克森美孚一期50LLDPE装置、48万吨/年PP装置与47.5万吨/年PP装置成功投产，预计未来新装置持续放量，PE供应维持偏高，而PP较多装置检修停车，暂缓市场供应压力。聚烯烃下游开工率维持下行，地膜季节性旺季结束，五一假期前，终端工厂订单维持刚需采购为主。会议释放宏观利好，关税政策影响下，丙烷价格持续走强，PDH制PP生产利润处于亏损，新增一套青岛金能PDH装置检修，重启时间未定，关注PP成本端变化，整体库存小幅去化。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 石化库存62.5万吨，较上周去库9.5万吨。 联系人 杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371 基差方面，LL华东基差+160元/吨，PP华东基差+100元/吨。 生产利润及国内开工方面，当前PE检修装置较少，PE开工率高位运行，PP较多装置检修停车，暂缓市场供应压力，惠州埃克森美孚一期50LLDPE装置、48万吨/年PP装置与47.5万吨/年PP装置成功投产。丙烷价格持续走强，PDH制PP生产利润处于亏损。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 进出口方面，LL进口窗口关闭，PP进口窗口关闭。 下游需求方面，聚烯烃下游开工率维持下行，地膜季节性旺季结束，五一假期前，终端工厂订单维持刚需采购为主。 刘启展020-83901049liuqizhan@htfc.com从业资格号：F03140168 ■策略 塑料谨慎偏空，预计价格偏弱震荡运行。 ■风险 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 原油价格大幅波动，需求恢复不及预期。 目录 聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃检修计划................................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃进出口利润...........................................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................13聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:中国PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图4:中国油制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图5:中国煤制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图6:中国烷烃制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...............................................................................................................5图7:中国PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图8:中国油制PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图9:中国煤制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................6图10:中国PDH制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................6图11:聚烯烃周度开工预估|单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图12:PE开工率分工艺|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图13:PE开工率分品种|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图14:PP开工率分工艺|单位：%....................................................................................................................................................8图15:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................8图16:PE开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................8图17:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图18:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图19:PP开工率|单位：%..........................................................................................................................................