聚烯烃周报：PE新装置投产，未来供应压力较大

研究院化工组 策略摘要 研究员 中性：供应偏紧局面维持，多套装置停车检修，新增产能裕龙石化30万吨HDPE装置与50万吨全密度装置开车，未来新投产能压力较大。下游工厂开工率缓慢下行，刚需采购为主，整体库存小幅增加，临近年底，预计未来上游中游库存去库为主。上游成本端弱势，PDH制PP生产利润小幅提升，海天石化、东华能源等装置重启，PDH开工率走高，预计聚烯烃维持区间整理。 梁宗泰020-83901031liangzongtai@htfc.com从业资格号：F3056198投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉020-83901135cl@htfc.com从业资格号：F0233775投资咨询号：Z0000421 核心观点 ■市场分析 石化库存59.5万吨，较上一周去库3.5万吨。 联系人 基差方面，LL华东基差+680元/吨，PP华东基差+90元/吨。 杨露露0755-82790795yanglulu@htfc.com从业资格号：F03128371 生产利润及国内开工方面，上游成本端弱势，PDH制PP生产利润小幅提升，海天石化、东华能源等装置重启，PDH开工率走高。 进出口方面，LL进口窗口打开，PP进口窗口关闭。 吴硕琮020-83901158wushuocong@htfc.com从业资格号：F03119179 下游需求方面，下游工厂开工率缓慢下行，刚需采购为主。 ■策略 中性。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1289号 ■风险 原油价格大幅波动，需求恢复不及预期。 目录 聚烯烃基差结构................................................................................................................................................................................4聚烯烃检修计划................................................................................................................................................................................5聚烯烃生产利润及开工率.................................................................................................................................................................8聚烯烃非标价差及开工占比.............................................................................................................................................................9聚烯烃进出口利润...........................................................................................................................................................................11聚烯烃下游开工及下游利润...........................................................................................................................................................13聚烯烃库存......................................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1:LL主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨..........................................................................................................................4图2:PP主力合约走势&基差&跨期|单位：元/吨...........................................................................................................................4图3:中国PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图4:中国油制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图5:中国煤制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图6:中国烷烃制PE检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...............................................................................................................5图7:中国PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................................5图8:中国油制PP检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................................5图9:中国煤制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...........................................................................................................6图10:中国PDH制PP月度检修量（乘以-1）|单位：万吨/月...................................................................................................6图11:聚烯烃周度开工预估|单位：%............................................................................................................................................6图12:PE开工率分工艺|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图13:PE开工率分品种|单位：%...................................................................................................................................................7图14:PP开工率分工艺|单位：%....................................................................................................................................................8图15:LL生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................8图16:PE开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................8图17:PP生产利润（原油制）|单位：元/吨..................................................................................................................................9图18:PP生产利润（PDH制）|单位：元/吨.................................................................................................................................9图19:PP开工率|单位：%...............................................................................................................................................................9图20:HD注塑-LL（华东）|单位：元/吨......................................................................................................................................9图21:LD-LL价差（华东）|单位：元/吨..