2024年旱涝风险：对农业及相关产业的影响

Drought and Flood Risk2024:Impacts onagricultureand relatedindustries Introduction Thailand will move from El Niño to La Niña conditions over 2024, but although the country will continue to feelthe effects of the El Niño through the first half of the year, the emergence of a monsoon trough in 2023 meansthat reservoirs are currently at close to their historical average. However, areas lying outside irrigation networkswill be more heavily impacted by higher temperatures, heatwaves, accelerated rates of evaporation, delays toseasonal rains, and overall lower rainfall, and the resulting drought will then affect the environment, theagricultural sector, industries linked to this, and consumption. Krungsri Research expects that this will then cutoutputs of crops that are more drought-sensitive, most notably off-season rice, sugarcane, and cassava, as wellas other economically important crops such as corn, fruits, and some agroforestry goods, though this will impactdownstream industries more than those that are upstream from the agricultural sector. This will then generatelosses for the economy that in the base case are estimated to run to some THB 51.3 billion. There will then be arisk of flooding in some areas in the second half of the year, though the most important indicator of this will beindices such as the ONI, which will tend to move to neutral and then to La Niña conditions, and the PDO and IODindices, which will trend into a negative phase (i.e., below-0.5). This will then increase the impact of tropicalstorms on Thailand, with these most likely to affect the lower north, the upper central, and the northeasternregions, especially those areas that have been subject to repeated flooding in the past. This may then causedamage and losses to households, factories, machinery, and agricultural outputs. In the base case, KrungsriResearch sees 1.7 million rai potentially suffering from flooding at a cost of THB 260 million in damage toproperty and assets and a further THB 4.2 billion in agricultural losses. Combined losses from drought andflooding in 2024 are therefore expected to come to THB 55.8 billion, shaving-0.31% from GDP and adding 0.32-0.35% to headline inflation. Chaiwat Sowcharoensuk Senior Analystchaiwat.sowcharoensuk@krungsri.com+662296 2000 Ext. 50880 Disclaimer Unlessexplicitlystatedotherwise,thispublicationandallmaterialthereinisunder the copyright ofKrungsriResearch. As such, the reuse, reproduction, oralteration of this text or any part thereof is absolutely prohibited without priorwrittenconsent.Thisreportdrawsonawiderangeofwell-establishedandtrustworthysources,butKrungsriResearchcanmakenoguaranteeoftheabsolute veracity of the material cited. Moreover,KrungsriResearch will not beheld responsible for any losses that may occur either directly or indirectly fromany use towhich this reportorthe datacontained therein maybe put.Theinformation,opinions,andjudgementsexpressedinthisreportarethoseofKrungsriResearch, but this publication does not necessarily reflect the opinionsof Bank ofAyudhyaPublic Company Limited or of any other companies withinthe same commercial group. This report is an accurate reflection of the thinkingand opinions ofKrungsriResearch as of the day of publication, but we reservethe right to change those opinions without prior notice. For research subscription, contactkrungsri.research@krungsri.com Indications of a transition from El Niñoto La Niña conditions As 2024 began, Thailand remained in El Niño1/conditions but changes in the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), ameasurement based on sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, indicate that this is softening.Thus, in December 20232/, with temperatures 2.0oC above normal, the ONI indicated a ‘very strong’ El Niño thatwas close in scale to four earlier historically strong events3/recorded in 1972 (2.1oC), 1982-1983 (2.2oC), 1997(2.4oC), and 2015 (2.6oC). However, as the year progressed, the ONI began to weaken and it is now likely thatthe index will return to neutral conditions4/this year, potentially then transitioning to a La Niña1/(Figure 1).Inlight ofthese changes, Krungsri Research has assessed outcomes for 2024 based on three different scenarios(Figure 2): Base case:Having begun to weaken in January, the ONI will enter neutral conditions in June 2024 and LaNiña conditions in August 2024.Worse case or stronger than expected El Niño:In this case, the ONI will increase to close to its 1982-1983/1997 levels in March before returning to neutral conditions in September 2024 and La Niñaconditions in November 2024.Worst case or historical high:In this scenario, the ONI will hit a 74-year high in April, as in 2015, and thentransition to neutral conditions in September 2024 and a La Niña in December 2024. Figure1 Official NOAA CPC ENSO2/Probabilities Based on-0.5oC/+0.5oC thresholds in ERSSTv5 Niño-3.4 index5/ What will the consequences be of the2024 El Niño? From the start of the year through to mid-2024, Thailand wi