CORSIA为无飞行网络铺平道路

CORSIAPaving the Way forFlying Net Zero Aviation-related carbon emissions4 CORSIA: A mechanism for measuring, reducing,and offsetting international aviation emissions5 Impacts, opportunities and challenges arisingfrom the enforcement of CORSIA10 Aligning the airline industry with the net zerogoals19 Krungsri Research view: Thai aviation taxiingtowards sustainability takeoff21 References23 Unlessexplicitlystatedotherwise,thispublicationandallmaterialthereinisunder the copyright ofKrungsriResearch. As such, the reuse, reproduction, oralteration of this text or any part thereof is absolutely prohibited without priorwrittenconsent.Thisreportdrawsonawiderangeofwell-establishedandtrustworthysources,butKrungsriResearchcanmakenoguaranteeoftheabsolute veracity of the material cited. Moreover,KrungsriResearch will not beheld responsible for any losses that may occur either directly or indirectly fromany use towhich this reportorthe datacontained therein maybe put.Theinformation,opinions,andjudgementsexpressedinthisreportarethoseofKrungsriResearch, but this publication does not necessarily reflect the opinionsof Bank ofAyudhyaPublic Company Limited or of any other companies withinthe same commercial group. This report is an accurate reflection of the thinkingand opinions ofKrungsriResearch as of the day of publication, but we reservethe right to change those opinions without prior notice. For research subscription, contactkrungsri.research@krungsri.com Executive summary TheCarbonOffsettingandReductionSchemeforInternationalAviation(CORSIA)isaglobalprojectthataimstoincreasethesustainabilityandlessentheenvironmentalimpactsoftheaviationindustry.Theschemehastwoprincipalcomponents:(i)measuring,reportingandverifying(MRV)carbonemissionsarisingfrominternationalaviation;and(ii)offsettingemissionsinexcessofagreedquotasthroughthepurchaseofcarboncredits.TheThaiaviationsectorhasbeencoveredbytheCORSIAschemesince2021,thoughinitsinitialstages,theimpactsonindustryhavebeenonlyslight.However,enforcementwillbegininearnestin2027,andwithalmostallemissionsfrominternationalflightscountedagainstbaselines,carriers’overheadsarecertaintorise.Indeed,bytheendofCORSIA’ssecondphasein2035,thecostofthecarboncreditsrequiredbyThaiairlinestooffsetananticipated40milliontonnesofexcessCO2emissionsislikelytoruntosomeTHB20billion.Morepositively,though,theCORSIAprojectwillhelptostimulategrowthinmarketsforthehigh-qualitycarboncreditsrequiredasoffsetsaswellasforsustainableaviationfuels(SAFs),whichwillhelptoreducetheneedfortheseoffsetsinthefirstplace.Morebroadly,theenforcementoftheCORSIAregulationswillalsoencouragethecountrytodevelopitsMRVsystem,tocutitsaviation-relatedemissions,andtofurtherexpandthescopeandqualityofinvestmentsintheenvironmentalprojectsusedtogeneratehigh-qualitycarboncredits. Prapan Leenoi Analystprapan.leenoi@krungsri.com+662296 6235 Aviation-related carbon emissions Aviation is a significant contributor to total anthropogenic carbon emissions, and not only is the industry a majorsource of these,itis also widely recognized as a ‘hard-to-abate’ sector, that is, decarbonizing aviation presents aparticular set of challenges.Carbon emissions from flying have risen steadily over the past few decades, and in2019, these reached around1billion tonnes of CO2, or 2.5% of total global emissions1/, with some 65% of thiscoming from international aviation2/. However, the Covid-19 pandemic dealt a severe blow to tourismworldwide and so at the start of the decade, aviation-related emissions slumped, but with the ending of thecrisis and the rebound in the tourism sector from 2022 onwards, these have begun to climb again. Emissions aretherefore now back to 80% of their pre-Covid level3/. In 2022, the member states of theInternational Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)joined together to lay outtheir‘long-term global aspirational goal’of transitioning international aviation to net zero carbon emissionsby 2050 (the so-called ‘fly net zero’)4/.However, reaching this goal will depend on successfully orchestratingoperations both inside and outside the industry. This will includeincreasing investment in new aviationtechnology,supporting the increased production and consumption of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), andusing carbon credits to offset ongoing emissions from aviationwith cuts made elsewhere in the economy.Introducing themarket-based measureknown asthe Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme forInternational Aviation (CORSIA), it is hoped to help move the industry much closer towards the goal of fullsustainability, particularly over the short to medium term, when it will remain challenging to achieve rapid cutsin emissions through efficiency gains and technological advances. CORSIA: A mechanism for measuring, reducing,and offsetting international aviation emissions What is CORSIA? The CORSIA agreement specifies a framework under which airlines around the world will be required to usecarbon credit markets to offset greenhouse gas emissions when