回顾与展望：评估美国经济风险

Looking Back and Ahead:Evaluating Risks to the US Economy Executive Summary3 US Economic overview for 20244 Identifying recession risks from history7 Assessing US economic risks from key economic,financial, and policy factors10 Key risks to the US economy from policyuncertainty15 KrungsriResearch View18 References19 Unlessexplicitlystatedotherwise,thispublicationandallmaterialthereinisunder the copyright ofKrungsriResearch. As such, the reuse, reproduction, oralteration of this text or any part thereof is absolutely prohibited without priorwrittenconsent.Thisreportdrawsonawiderangeofwell-establishedandtrustworthysources,butKrungsriResearchcanmakenoguaranteeoftheabsolute veracity of the material cited. Moreover,KrungsriResearch will not beheld responsible for any losses that may occur either directly or indirectly fromany use towhich this reportorthe datacontained therein maybe put.Theinformation,opinions,andjudgementsexpressedinthisreportarethoseofKrungsriResearch, but this publication does not necessarily reflect the opinionsof Bank ofAyudhyaPublic Company Limited or of any other companies withinthe same commercial group. This report is an accurate reflection of the thinkingand opinions ofKrungsriResearch as of the day of publication, but we reservethe right to change those opinions without prior notice. For research subscription, contactkrungsri.research@krungsri.com Executive Summary In the past, the US economy has often faced the risk of recession following interest rate hikes, such as in1989, 2000, and 2008. At present,KrungsriResearch has assessed these risks by analyzing both the realeconomy and financial markets while also considering potential future risk factors. By comparing pastevents, they aim to evaluate the conditions that may lead to a US economic recession. Recent dataindicates that while the US economy remains strong, signs of a slowdown are emerging, such as aweakening labor market and rising delinquency rates. Additionally, uncertainty surrounding US PresidentDonald Trump’s policies is another factor that could heighten risks to the US economy and inflation in themedium to long term Based on an assessment that considers historical, current, and future trends, the US economy may avoid asevere recession if Donald Trump’s policies do not significantly impact inflation, household living costs,business competitiveness, or production costs. Under these conditions, the US economy is likely toexperience a gradual slowdown, or a "soft landing," in 2025. ThansinKlinthanom Senior EconomistThansin.klinthanom@krungsri.com+662296 2944 US Economic overview for 2024 Signs of economic slowdown and rising risks. The US economy is showing increasing signs of a slowdown in 2024, and this trend is expected to continueinto 2025. Key economic indicators—such as labor market figures, wages, manufacturing sector data,delinquency rates1/, and debt refinancing trends—point to this deceleration. This situation is furtherexacerbated by persistently high real interest rates2/. The signs of economic slowdown and increasing risksare reflected in the following indicators: Economic indicators: Signs of a gradual slowdown (Soft Landing)3/ The US labor market has been signaling a continuous slowdown. The unemployment rate is graduallyincreasing, and job openings have declined to pre-COVID-19 levels4/, reflecting reduced hiring demand(Job openings). At the same time, slowing wage growth is impacting household purchasing power. Themanufacturing sector remains in contraction, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) formanufacturing5/recorded at 49.3 in December (below the neutral level of 50), marking the ninthconsecutive month of contraction. This is due to high interest rates, weak demand, and concerns overDonald Trump’s economic and trade policies, which have led businesses to delay investments and increaseinventory levels. With monetary policy remaining tight6/, both corporate and household debt burdens arerising. Business debt refinancing is expected to surge between 2025 and 20267/(Figure 3), and combinedwith high interest rates, this could increase business costs, potentially affecting profitability and futureborrowing. Meanwhile, household debt burdens are also increasing, as reflected in rising delinquencyrates—particularly in credit card and auto loans, which have reached their highest levels in over a decade. Technical indicators pointing to recession risks8/ Beside economic factors, financial market indicators also suggest that the US economy faces an increasedrisk of recession, including: Inverted Yield Curve9/:Historically, when the yield on 10-year US government bonds falls below theyield on 2-year bonds (resulting in a negative yield spread), it often precedes a recession. When theeconomy enters a recession, the yield spread typically returns to normal. In December 2024, the yieldspread between 10-year and 2-year US government bonds was positive at 0.25%, rising from its lowestpoint of