Global Economic Outlook
- Global Growth: Resilient manufacturing supports growth, services sector shows signs of imminent recovery.
- Pandemic Risks: Progress in mass vaccination brightens prospects for global growth and hiring.
- Japan: Latest outbreak may cause slowdown in 2Q21, but economy to recover in 2H21.
- China: After 1Q slowdown, economy shows signs of stabilizing; private sector plays greater role in growth.
- Europe: Accelerating vaccination and economic reopening to support growth.
- US: Economic data signal strong start; reopening and current measures to support growth throughout 2021.
- ASEAN: Exports to benefit from global recovery; Vietnam and Indonesia to lead peers.
Regional Economic Outlook
- Thailand: Recovery stumbles due to third wave; GDP trimmed to 2.0% in 2021F; economy to improve in 2H21.
- Cambodia: Plans to reopen international tourism by 4Q21; virus resurgence remains a challenge.
- Laos: Exports and investment to support growth in 2021; new outbreaks could weaken recovery pace.
- Myanmar: US and EU extend sanctions; ASEAN urges Myanmar to end violence but has a long way to go.
- Vietnam: Targets services sector to contribute 50% of GDP by 2030; economic reforms to support goal.
- Indonesia: Economy contracts by slower pace in 1Q21; exports and investment to be key growth drivers.
- Philippines: Higher economic risks given surging COVID-19 cases and high public debt level.
